Climate Change Catastrophes in Critical Thinking
This is to be a work in progress. As I collect more interesting evidence,
I'll be sure to add it.
Abstract
This article explores the phenomenon of global warming, climate change, and
the extraordinary consequences popularly speculated. As a hypothesis can only be
scientific if it is testable, this article tests key assertions of climate
change Catastrophism against the facts of the geological record. Finding that,
climate change Catastrophism lacks scientific support, the implications of
neo-catastrophist behaviour with special regard to global warming is considered
and in this light, the proposed remedies for global warming are examined against
contemporary crises and opportunities. This article finds that the impact of
excessive land clearance is of far greater concern.
What is Global Warming?
Global warming is a generalisation in both space and time used to describe
the rising trend in mean global temperature evident in many but not all analyses
of near-surface temperature data. Temperature is measured instrumentally at
weather stations located mostly in and around cities, towns and villages; and by
infrared imaging of the lower Troposphere obtained by satellite. The Troposphere
is the lowest layer of atmosphere making lower Tropospheric mean temperatures
much more representative of global mean temperature than the average of
measurements taken in mostly built up areas that are ultimately exaggerated by
building heat during Winter, air-conditioner venting during Summer, and radiant
heat from bitumen and concrete, etc. It is noteworthy that those promoting the
global warming panic still use the soundly discredited instrumental temperature
charts instead of the less convenient satellite data.
Climate change, and in particular the subject of global warming, has become a
hotly debated subject in recent years. Much of the debate seems to be focussed
on speculative projections arising from an emphasis of the soundly discredited
instrumental temperature averages of
contemporary history to the exclusion of better quality satellite data along
with what is known about temperature trends
throughout human history and indeed prehistory.
According to those alarmed at the prospect of a warmer planet Earth, global
warming poses one of the greatest threats humanity have faced in our rather
short history.
It is often asserted that global warming is caused by rising carbon dioxide
levels and that it will ultimately cause the expansion of deserts and arid
regions, a substantial rise in mean sea level, and the mass extinction of much
of the life on planet Earth. If such catastrophes were indeed the product of
global warming, they would have occurred as consequences of past global warming
events. The geological record with numerous indicators of temperature, climate,
sea level, carbon dioxide levels, and biodiversity; can be used to test the
speculation that global warming would indeed be catastrophic.
What Can History & the Geological Record Tell Us About Global Warming?
How Reliable is Geological History in Modelling Global Warming?
Claims of global warming catastrophe are speculations made on the basis of
limited combinations of physical processes. The applicability of such
combinations cannot be proven on their own merit, because without some form of
empirical testing we cannot verify that they are completely representative of
all processes relevant to global climate change. Without a repeatable test
against which to measure such claims, they cannot correctly be described as
scientific hypotheses. Geological history is ignored by those raising the alarm
about global warming and I have heard it argued that the geological record is
irrelevant because it is "in the past and things are really different now".
However, the very uniqueness claimed of those current conditions identified as affecting the
climate can also be tested against the geological record. Moreover, cyclicity is
well documented in both history (eg. Tuchman, 1987) and geology (eg. Miall,
1997), so it stands to reason that the past can offer a valuable testbed for
climate speculation.
Palaeotemperature
Temperature in the geological record, is determined by oxygen isotope
ratios
measured from the analysis of remains of floating marine organisms and
calibrated against the correlation of oxygen isotope ratios measured in
modern
floating marine organism remains against temperature means measured in
human
history (eg. Veizer et al., 2000). Another very accurate indicator of
temperature is the extent of specific sediment types such as tillites,
moraine
deposits, and drop-stones, indicative of glacial activity at latitudes
specific
to the plate tectonic reconstruction of the period of geological history
in
question (Scotese, 2001; Royer et al., 2004). Recent pH corrections to
the
oxygen isotope palaeotemperature record made by Royer et al. (2004) have
improved palaeotemperature correlation with both cosmic radiation cycles
and
temperature constraints imposed by the varying distribution of glacial
sediment. In this sense we have a very accurate picture of some of the
patterns
and variations of temperature throughout geological history.
Palaeobathymetry
Taking variations of mean sea level into account has proven vital to accurate
basin analysis. Basin analysis is used to identify the historical path of source
and reservoir rocks relative to the oil window. This is used to determine
whether potential reservoirs may have been buried too deeply or alternatively if
potential source rocks have been buried deeply enough to produce the targeted
hydrocarbons. Miall (1997) devotes an entire section to the subject of
non-seismic methods for reconstructing a palaeobathymetric record. While seismic
methods used stratigraphic features such as onlap to indicate relative sea level
through time, other methods include sediment thickness plots, the Fischer plot
based on cycle number, and the R3 plot based on decompacted sediment
thicknesses. While precise correlation between methods is not observed, the
accuracy of correlation is surprising. If palaeobathymetry is accurate enough
for profitable stratigraphic analysis in petroleum exploration, then the global
plots are accurate enough to test the assertion that global warming causes sea
level rises.
Palaeoclimate
Sedimentology is a study of sedimentation that compares modern
sediments with
sediments observed in the geological record in order to identify
depositional
environments. Implicit in the nature and extent of depositional
environments is
the controlling palaeoclimate. Pelletal clays, evapourites, desiccation
cracks,
synaeresis cracks, and wind borne
sediments such as sand dunes, loess, and parna are all indicators of
arid
conditions which are confirmed by the presence of clasts with etched or
pitted
surfaces, silcrete, and dreikanters (wind-faceted pebbles). Tillite,
moraine,
drop-stones, and striated erosion surfaces found on outcrop, boulders
and
drop-stones are all produced by
glaciers. Coals are typically preserved in wet and humid environments.
"Polystrate" trees (trees preserved as coal and clastic sediment
accumulates
around them) and varves (seasonal sedimentation) are features of
lacustrine or
lake sedimentation. Other environments clearly indicated by sediment
types,
sequences and stratigraphic sequence include deltas, estuaries,
submarine
canyons, braided river systems, meandering river systems, coral reefs,
abyssal
plains, coasts, etc. Sediment features such as bed thickness,
symmetrical
ripples, asymmetric ripples, megaripples, crossbedding, trough width,
and grain
size indicate the relative volume, speed and power of transport
mechanisms such
as river systems, which in turn are governed by the amount of
precipitation
available to the fluvial (river) system (Miall, 1996).
Biodiversity
The fossil record is well established, with faunal progression so well
documented that in some parts of the fossil record, transitional forms are too
numerous to determine a precise time of speciation. Although the global
distribution and extent of environments favouring fossilisation varies with
time, there is a well defined alternation of mass extinction and biological
radiation.
Carbon Dioxide Levels Throughout Geological History
Past carbon dioxide levels are measured from the contents of vesicles and
cavities that were once exposed to the atmosphere - such as those found in ice
cores. Another method used to determine older carbon dioxide levels is the use
of a series of carbon dioxide steady states to calibrate the weathering of
silicates with carbon dioxide levels.
Is Global Warming Really Catastrophic?
To answer the question of whether global warming really is
catastrophic, it
is logical to fall back on science rather than politics or economics.
Science has nothing to do with consensus nor with qualification. Science
is
entirely based on hard evidence, falsifiable hypotheses, and repeatable
tests.
Consider; the world was still an oblate spheroid back in the times when
by
almost unanimous human consensus, the world was believed to be flat and
have
edges guarded by terrible beasts. A lack of approval of your peers and a
lack of
qualifications cannot possibly prevent you from testing scientific
theories such
as gravity. In fact, you conduct a scientific experiment every time you
cross
the road when you check to ensure no traffic is approaching before
stepping off
the curb. You can also test the claims that global warming has
catastrophic
consequences because having established that the geological record
provides an
excellent test bed for these claims, we can now test them as hypotheses
against
the geological record. This, is the nature of science. Let us therefore
scientifically test each of the hypotheses that global warming does
indeed have
catastrophic consequences.
To this end, I've compiled a comparative record of cosmic radiation, mean
global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide, atmospheric oxygen, extinction
rates, and variations in mean sea level:
Cosmic Radiation in gold, Carbon Dioxide in bold violet, & Temperature in
red after Royer et al. (2004), Geocarb III Carbon dioxide
hypothetical computer model in fine violet after Berner (2001), Oxygen in green after Berner et al. (2003), Extinction Rates
in brown after Futuyma (1998), & Seismic Mean Sea Level Variations after Exxon
in blue, & Qualitative Mean Sea Level Variations in teal after Hallam et al.
(1989). Radiometric dates in black grid of 50 million year increments with
epochs in alternating grey and white. Glacial periods are overprinted in solid
cyan. Note the greater
correlation between cosmic radiation and temperature than between carbon dioxide
and temperature. Note also the sudden rise in extinction rates every time global
mean temperature falls below 19 degrees Celcius. The only extinction event to
occur above 19 degrees Celcius occurs in response to a sudden drop in oxygen
levels. Up until the break-up of Gondwana, oxygen and temperature have a roughly
inverse correlation. Relative sea level sometimes correlates directly, sometimes
inversely, and at other times indefinitely which, is to say that mean sea level
and temperature do not correlate throughout geological history.
"Global Warming is Unprecedented"
Is it really?
If global warming is indeed in some way unprecedented, then we would expect
to find no match for the current global warming trend in the geological record.
Let us consider just the most recent Holocene epoch - dominated by human
history.
Average near-surface temperatures of the northern hemisphere during the past
11,000 years compiled by David Archibald after Dansgaard et al. (1969) & Schönwiese (1995).
Looking at just the historical picture, shown in the graph above, we
can see
that global warming has happened many times before in human history.
We've had the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Climate Optimum,
and the
Medieval Warm Period in addition to the current warm period
(Dansguard et al., 1968;
Schönwiese, 1995; Keigwin, 1996). Note the steepness of the rise in
temperature
at the beginning of the Minoan warm period. This rate of warming far
exceeds
that of the current warm period. Huang et al. (1997) determined that the
depiction of the Medieval Warm Period in this graph may be somewhat
conservative. According to their study of 6000 boreholes worldwide, the
global
mean temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period dwarf the changes of the
Twentieth
Century.
The evidence shows repeatedly that global warming is not unprecedented and
according to Ruddiman (2001) as well as Singer & Avery (2006), global warming is
a regular cyclic phenomenon on planet Earth. In fact, the normal global mean
temperature for planet earth given the Phanerozoic history, is actually 19.5
degrees Celcius; a full three degrees higher than the present mean.
"Global Warming Will Lead to a Catastrophic Rise in Sea Levels"
Is that so?
Neither the Hallam sea level curve, nor the Exxon sea level curve correlates
reliably with variations
in temperature throughout the Phanerozoic. However, the response of sea level to
temperature does appear to increase as continental landmass becomes less clustered. For
example, during the late Ordovician glaciation, sea levels fell only slightly in
comparison to later glacial periods such as the last ice age. What is
interesting is the persistent rise and fall of mean sea level during glaciation.
While mean sea level appears to follow the major trends in
temperature throughout a number of epochs across the Phanerozoic, Jurassic and Triassic mean sea levels
are lowest when the temperature is highest. In spite of common direct
correlations, the almost equally common inverse correlations between temperature and
sea level suggests that something other than global mean temperature controls
sea level.
Planet Earth's crust or lithosphere, is a skin made up of independent plates
that float on the liquid aesthenosphere. As such, the lithosphere can be buoyed
up where it is lighter and sag where it is heavier. Isostatic reaction describes the
process known as, "unloading", where there is a tectonic rebound of continental plates
that are are stripped of a mass of either rock (by erosion) or ice (by melting), combined with increased mass in ocean
basins (Watts, 2001). This has been used to explain why in many cases sea level is documented
as having risen in response to cooling and fallen in response to warming (Lisitzin, 1974).
For example, sea levels actually fell during the steady rise in temperature
prior to the temperature maximum at the end of the middle Ordovician. This
dwarfed the minor rise and fall of sea level during the late Ordovician
glaciation. For the larger part, sea levels were very low during the
Carboniferous-Permian Glaciation, but the fluctuations of the period saw minor
rises in sea level in response to minor cooling and minor falls in sea level in
response to minor warming. Of greater significance is the minor response in sea level at the same time as
the major temperature peak in the Triassic that is followed by a large scale
rise in sea level as temperatures fall drastically into the Jurassic period.
This inverse correlation stops at the break-up of Gondwana, and sea levels have
appeared to follow temperature more accurately since the beginning of the
Cretaceous about 140 million years ago. These anomalies in the relationship between sea level
and global mean temperature are confirmed by independent studies utilising
different methods (Hallam et al., 1989). As it turns out, anomalous response of sea
level to temperature continues until Gondwana moves away from the South Pole and
begins to break up.
Modern studies of sea level including both those using sparsely distributed tide gauges
and those using satellite altimeter logs have shown the global mean sea level is also influenced
by the seasons (Chen et al., 1998), el Nino (Chambers et al., 2001), and volcanic
eruptions (Church et al., 2005). Modern satellite measurements of sea level
confirm this complexity of sea level response, showing for example a 30mm per
annum rise in the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans against
a simultaneous 10mm per annum fall in the western Indian Ocean with a global
average sea level rise of 4mm per year over the years 1993-2001 (Church et al.,
2006).
The geological evidence shows that mean sea level is more likely to rise in response to global
warming if there is sufficient continental dissemination away from the poles and
that the tendency for isostatic sea level reaction (inverse correlation with
temperature) is heightened by increased rifting, which generalisation corresponds to modern
observations of minor global sea level fluctuations (eg. Church et al., 2006;
Douglas, 1997). Although Cainozoic sea level and temperature responses do
correlate, this correlation is tenuous at best in view of geological history,
and an understanding the other mechanisms that cause mean sea level variations
would lend itself to more reliable statements about the impact of global warming
on mean sea level. The impact of such mechanisms as el Nino and decadal
mechanisms such as volcanism raise questions about studies of limited duration,
such as the 1993-2001 satellite record used
by Church et al. (2006), and suggest
that global sea level trends can only be determined from data sets spanning at
least a century. Tide gauge data has supported the suggestion that global mean
sea level has risen 200mm over the last century along a non-geometric trend
(Douglas, 1997). However geologically stable the setting of a tide gauge, no
ocean is independent of isostatic response and therefore global mean sea level
can only be be determined reliably from truly global data such
as satellite altimeter logs, taken over at least a century of measurement. While
we are beginning to understand the numerous mechanisms that effect sea level, we
have insufficient empirical evidence to draw any conclusion about the current
global mean sea level trends independent of decadal, annual, and monthly
processes.
Nevertheless, in the event sea levels do rise in response to a relative
increase in mean global temperature, it is well
worth asking whether the land area made available by retreating ice will exceed
the land area flooded by rising sea levels.
"Global Warming Will Cause Widespread Desertification"
Is This Really True?
In the geological record, we see associated with cooling, aridity indicators
such as thinner, finer fluvial and lacustrine sediments (Reading, 1996); &
increased sedimentary evapourites, evapourite casts, and evapourite moulds (Boucot
et al., 2004). Evidently, as the earth cools the growth of ice caps removes
water from the atmosphere leaving less water for precipitation. In fact, the
association of desertification with the Permian Ice Age is so well accepted that
it is even reported by the Penguin Encyclopaedia as the only other key feature of the
Permian apart from glaciation. The Willandra Lakes in New South Wales actually
dried up as deserts in Australia expanded during the last ice age (Bowler, 1971;
Bowler 1975; Wasson & Bowler, 1984). White (1994) connects the
post-settlement aridification
of Australia with deforestation rather than climate change.
In more recent history, the 1973 drought that advanced the Sahara in Sahel
(Press & Seiver, 1982) occurred just after the lowest point in the 1945-1975
temperature slump depicted by the IPCC's instrumental temperature record. According to
the IPCC's instrumental temperature record, the period 1913-1945 was 0.2ºC cooler than
the period 1945-1974. According to the research of Pittock (1975), southeastern Australia
enjoyed an increase in rainfall of between 10-20% during the warmer 1945-1974 period. The
most recent drought in Australia began during a mild temperature minimum in 2003
that was compounded by a much more severe temperature minimum in late 2004 based
on satellite measurements of Tropospheric mean temperature.
Throughout history, we may postulate that warm ages allowed sufficient agriculture to support large
armies capable of defending the extensive borders of enormous empires including
the Greeks, the Romans, and the Moors. Cooling coincided with the erosion and
collapse of large empires. Presumably because agriculture under such conditions
could no longer support the standing armies necessary to extensive border defence.
The thickening and coarsening fluviatile deposits of the Kevington Creek Beds
in Victoria (Marsden, 1988) correspond to a Devonian temperature maximum around
400 million years ago before thinning upwards with cooling, into the Early Carboniferous
fluviatile deposits of the Mansfield Group on it's basal pebbly sandstone.
Although a transition from meandering river and flood plain deposits to
sediments successively more typical of braided river and outwash systems
confirms the tectonic uplift (Tabberabberan Orogeny) of Webby (1972), the
thickness trends of the beds is most certainly indicative of varying flow rates
that are ultimately dependent on the amount of precipitation in the region. A
similar situation is documented in the Lake Frome Group (Wopfner, 1969;
Gravestock & Cowley, 1995) of the Northern Flinders Ranges in South Australia.
Here, very fine Cambrian fluviatile sediments from the Balcoracana Formation
thicken into the fine fluviatile sediments of the Pantapinna Sandstone and
thence into the much thicker braided river sediments of the Grindstone Range
Formation. Once again, tectonic uplift of the source is indicated, but for
sediment loads to increase, there must also be a corresponding increase in river
flow and scale and the Grindstone Range Sandstone is on such a large scale that
in addition to relatively large trough structures, it also exhibits asymmetric
bifurcating ripples (eg. the photograph on this site's home page (
http://www.geologist-1011.com),
that are typical of shorelines attached to large bodies of water. In this case,
the transition from very thin redbeds frequently punctuated by surfaces with mud
(desiccation) cracks and evapourite moulds to large scale braided river systems
on outwash plains coincide with a Cambrian global warming event. The Permian to
Triassic in the Cooper Basin (South Australia & Queensland) displays a
transition from terrestrial and subaqueous glaciogenic sediments through
fluviodeltaic and lacustrine sedimentation in the Gidgealpa Group to the
fluviolacustrine sediments of the Arrabury Formation with mudstones and
carbonaceous mudstones of the Callamurra Member passing up into the sandstones
of the Paning Member (Hill & Gravestock, 1995). This transition occurs with a
steady increase in the proportion of fluviatile sedimentation with time
indicating a steady increase in available precipitation during a period that
coincides with the build-up to the Triassic temperature maximum.
While there are exceptions to the generalisation supported by these examples
because there are nearly always arid regions somewhere on planet earth, it has
been found in a number of extensive palaeogeographic studies (eg. Boucot et al.,
2004; Scotese, 2001) that deserts advance in response to cooling and retreat in
response to warming. On a smaller scale, the desert wet season is always in the
high summer at the hottest time of the year, and the increased road maintenance
expenses associated with the use of waterlogged roads is why some petroleum
companies minimise their operations over high Summer. In my experience as a
petroleum geologist, the
driest time of the desert year is mid-Winter. This is explained by the same
research that recently proved the "Iris Effect" (Spencer et al., 2007)
by showing that as temperatures rise, water vapour accumulates in the atmosphere
until it is precipitated coincident with the cooling part of the cycle. If
however, this vapour laden air finds it's way over a desert, rain will fall with
temperatures and the Sun. Ultimately, it is only the warmest part of the year
that evaporates enough water to bring the desert rains.
Wendtz et al. (2007) found that satellite measurements confirmed an increase
of 7% in atmospheric water vapour per degree Celcius increase in global mean
temperature that translates to 1-3% corresponding increase in global
precipitation. Increased precipitation as a consequence of global warming is a
verifiable empirical scientific fact that refutes any conjecture that
desertification can be linked with global warming. If anything, this finding
proves that desertification may be a product of global cooling but cannot be
caused by global warming.
The facts suggest that much more abundant
precipitation as indicated by larger more powerful rivers is characteristic of
global warming. If anything, global warming is good news for farmers who depend
for their livelihood on rainfall. The geological evidence shows that desertification
cannot be produced by global warming.
"Global Warming Will Lead to a Mass Extinction"
Will it Really?
Within the fossil record, conspicuous and permanent disappearance of large
numbers of fossil types indicating a sudden drop in biodiversity are observed at
several points. These are called mass extinctions, and are well documented (eg.
Futuyma, 1998) in spite of the increasing preservation of fossils (Rhode &
Muller, 2005). In the Phanerozoic, we
observe three major mass extinctions all marking the beginning of the deepest
glaciations, whereas biological radiation coincides with the warmer periods (Berner,
1990; Scotese, 2001; also Futuyma, 1998 compared with Royer et al., 2004) when
there is a sudden explosion of biological diversity to fill niches not available
during colder periods. All but one Phanerozoic mass extinction event exceeding
nine families extinct per million years occurs just as mean global temperature
falls below 19 degrees Celcius. At the end of the Permian around 250 million
years ago, oxygen began to fall as temperatures rose. Large insects and other
organisms dependent on atmospheric oxygen levels above 30% began to die out in
large numbers. Although carbon dioxide levels rose, this was only by 0.15%
compared with an oxygen decrease one hundred times larger, falling 15%. I wonder
where all that oxygen went? The previous occurrence of mass extinction
caused by variation to
atmospheric composition was 2500 million years ago when
shortly after the available iron buffer was oxidised, rising oxygen levels from
photosynthesising bacteria wiped out nearly all of the anoxic bacteria on planet
Earth, in what Plimer (2001) calls a greater holocaust than anything perpetrated
by humans.
While atmospheric composition can prove critical to existing life
forms,
global mean temperature falling through 19 degrees Celcius is by far the
most
consistent parameter correlated with mass extinction. When major
volcanic eruptions and major impacts are said to cause a mass
extinction, the common mechanism thought to kill off life is the process
by
which dust that gets
thrown up into the atmosphere filters the sun's radiation and triggers
an ice
age that removes ecological niches that many species are dependent on.
It is global cooling that brings about mass extinction and not global
warming. In fact there are no examples of an extinction event during a
warm
period that are not explained by other more critical mechanisms.
The most recent mass extinction occurred during the last ice age, and
the role of desertification in the extinction of the Australian mega fauna is
spectacularly apparent in the vicinity of the Willandra Lakes. Here, the last
fresh water of the region drew long term occupation by Indigenous Australian
people, who survived the drought conditions living off the shellfish, and the
animals that came to drink at the lakes (Bowler, 1971; Hope, 1978).
Speculation that global warming may kill off the Polar bear is flawed because
the Polar bear has survived several previous warm ages, some dwarfing the
present warm age in both heat and suddenness. If anything, the modern extinction of species has a much more
direct link to Homo Sapiens than global warming. Modern causes of
extinction of species are much more along the lines of excessive hunting and
fishing, raising aqueous particulates to excessive levels in rivers and
wetlands, biological contamination and the release of vermin, improperly
processed chemical waste, littering, water table poisoning, poaching and other
extreme sports (particularly those that destroy habitat such as digging mud
holes with 4x4s), aquifer
contamination, jettisoning ballast in seas outside the abyssal plains zones,
deforestation, overuse of fertiliser and pesticides, and inappropriate
agriculture (eg. cotton growing on a desert island like Australia and farming
without cultivating associated productive symbiotic woodlands). Such things as
these are actual human activities and while the human being can be linked with
the extinction of many species, global warming is linked with the evolution of
new species to fill the new niches made available by warmer climates that are
ultimately more amenable to life.
The evidence clearly shows that global warming brings about the opposite of
mass extinction. We are currently near the bottom extreme of global mean
temperatures on Earth, and global warming can only bring us closer to what are
more normal temperatures for planet earth. The evidence shows that global
warming is good for the environment because by opening up new viable ecological
niches to life, global warming increases biodiversity.
"Global Warming is Caused by Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion "
Oh, Really?
The Largest Human Contribution to Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.
Carbon dioxide is produced by many natural sources including volcanoes,
animals, and plants when aspiring at night. Carbon dioxide has been as high as
7000ppm and back in the Devonian, corals evolved when carbon dioxide levels were
more than seven times the present concentration. Forests first appeared in force during
the Carboniferous when carbon dioxide levels were at least 1000ppm. The
horticultural benefits of high carbon dioxide levels are well known (Sylvan,
1992). In fact, it has been widely and repeatedly found both through historical
(IE tree ring studies of year to year growth) and experimental studies of plant
growth with reference to annual atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, that
higher carbon dioxide levels lead to much greater plant growth (eg. Kimball,
1983; Cure & Acock, 1986; Mortensen, 1987, Lawler & Mitchell, 1991; Drake &
Leadley, 1991; Gifford, 1992; Poorter, 1993, Kimball et al., 2007). In fact, both terrestrial (McNaughton, 1989) and aquatic
(Cyr & Face, 1993) animal life have prospered due to increased plant growth
resulting from rising carbon dioxide levels, proving that of all industrial emissions,
carbon dioxide is not a pollutant but is in fact a natural aerial fertiliser.
The fact that carbon pooling as a result of plant growth, accelerates in response
to rising carbon dioxide levels strongly suggests that currently increasing
carbon dioxide levels have more to do with loss of photosynthesising carbon
sinks than existing sources of atmospheric carbon such as fossil fuel
combustion.
Soils annually contribute between 76.5 & 80.4 gigatons of carbon to the
atmosphere (Raich & Potter, 1995; Raich et
al., 2002), dwarfing the 7.823 gigatons of carbon emission attributed to the
combustion of fossil fuels (IPCC, 2007). The IPCC's figure of 2.38 gigatons of
annual carbon emission to the atmosphere from deforestation roughly
corresponds to results from the studies of Melillo et al. (1996) and Haughton &
Hackler (2002). As we shall see, it is the balance of much larger sources and
sinks of carbon dioxide that will play the greatest role in determining
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
While the origin of much of the modern atmospheric carbon dioxide is
speculated to be industrial, carbon dioxide levels vary substantially on a
seasonal basis and correlate inversely with smaller seasonal variations in
atmospheric oxygen concentrations (Keeling et al., 1996). However, the
relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen concentration curves
reflects decreasing photosynthesis, which Lyons (2007) documents as the almost
exclusive producer of oxygen. While we are busily distracted with the assumption
that fossil fuel combustion is the main cause of the rise observed in
atmospheric carbon dioxide, we forget to consider the role of decreasing
photosynthesis consequent to deforestation.
According to Schlesinger (1991), the carbon reservoir represented by
photosynthesising biota is around 560 gigatons. Deforestation to the tune of
156 gigatons since 1850 (Haughton & Hackler, 2002) represents a total
deforestation of 22%. Although current photosynthesising biota account for
120 gigatons of atmospheric carbon sequestration (Bowes, 1991), this
figure would be closer to 154 gigatons of carbon sequestration back in 1850
given the impact of deforestation on photosynthesizing biota. The total
accumulated loss of atmospheric carbon sequestration since 1850 is currently
more than 38 gigatons
(Casey, 2008); greater than four times
the amount of carbon released by fossil fuel combustion to the atmosphere. The
dominant human activity contributing to the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide
is not fossil fuel combustion but the deficit in photosynthesis accumulated over
more than 150 years of deforestation.
The Relationship of Carbon Dioxide and Mean Global Temperature
Although Berner (1990) maintains that the carbon dioxide record supports
carbon dioxide greenhouse mechanism as a major control on climate, Berner and others (eg. Royer et al., 2004)
fail to establish causality in their argument (Shaviv & Veizer, 2004). The data of Berner (1990) and
(Royer et al., 2004) does indicate a very minor correlation between carbon
dioxide levels and temperature that is even coarser when compared to the carbon
dioxide curve of Berner (2001). However, contrary to the conclusion of Royer et
al. (2004), Shaviv & Veizer (2004) accurately point out that this correlation (if any)
is dwarfed by the imperfect correlation of cosmic radiation levels with global
temperature - as you can see in the comparative graph of Phanerozoic climate
variables I've depicted at the beginning of this chapter. The fall of carbon dioxide across the Phanerozoic is
not followed by a corresponding fall in temperature. If anything, the much
higher frequency of temperature variation is only matched by minor spikes along
the carbon dioxide decay that vary in timing with the occurrence of
corresponding temperature spikes. If we ignore the apparent timing problems in
the frequency correlation, the deviation of amplitude correlation between carbon
dioxide and temperature is still much higher than that for cosmic radiation and
temperature. This evidence suggests that cosmic radiation, if anything plays a
more dominant role than carbon dioxide in climate change. What is notable in the
data graphed by Royer et al. (2004)
is that temperature response to variations in cosmic radiation becomes less
exaggerated but less delayed as variations in cosmic radiation increase.
The secondary correlation of carbon dioxide with temperature is further qualified by two more
factors. Firstly, the magnitude of carbon dioxide's greenhouse effect becomes
geometrically smaller as carbon dioxide concentration increases. For example, the gross
effect of carbon dioxide increases on global mean temperature since 1900 is less than 0.2 degrees Celsius
(Archibald, 2007). Secondly, closer inspection of the data collected from the Vostok
ice cores shows that variations in carbon dioxide levels lag behind
variations in temperature (Caillon et al., 2003). If carbon dioxide did indeed
control global mean temperature, then it would be global mean temperature
response that lags carbon dioxide and not vice versa. It would seem likely
therefore, that global warming accelerates processes that contribute to the
accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide. One such process could be the
greater proliferation of respiring fauna relative to photosynthesising flora as
warming intensifies.
The Evidence...
The evidence demonstrates that the most significant anthropological
contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is not the combustion of fossil
fuels, it is deforestation (80%). The evidence also demonstrates that carbon dioxide is not a cause of global
warming, even if it has a minor feedback effect.
Economics & Politics
Oil Crisis & Carbon Storage Opportunity...
Liquid carbon dioxide has been observed flowing from hydrothermal vents at NW
Eifuku; about 1600m below sea level (Lupton et al., 2006). Fluids of high carbon
dioxide concentration have been observed venting before (Sakai, 1990) and carbon dioxide is
known to form submarine lakes in very deep water being much denser than seawater
at 3000-3800 metres below sea level reaching a maximum density
at 3500m (Nealson, 2006). However, carbon dioxide lakes can form and remain
stable in as little as 1400m of sea water in spite of being less dense than sea
water and this is due to a cap or "pavement" of carbon dioxide hydrate (Inagaki
et al., 2006).
As many low permeability petroleum reservoirs are at depths well below 3000m,
there is now an opportunity to exploit low permeability reserves. Drilling
development wells down dip from the suspended production well would allow carbon
dioxide to be injected into the formation down dip. Under pressure from both the
weighted mud column and the pumps, carbon dioxide could enter the reservoir as a
dense fluid to raise the formation pressure and ultimately the pressure
differential at the production well sufficiently to force petroleum fluids to
flow into the production well.
If the technological development for penetration of aquifers with liquid
carbon dioxide is funded by the tax payer, and if the taxpayer might be generous
enough to fund some of the logistics of collecting and transporting sufficient
amounts of carbon dioxide to well sites, an alternative source of petroleum
large enough to end the current oil crisis will become available. However, I
have to wonder how the
tax payer who typically thinks that fuel costs too much, would want to donate
hard earned taxes to indirectly subsidise the petroleum industry?
As it happens, the global warming scare has convinced tax payers to tolerate
politicians injecting huge amounts of taxation revenue into research centred on
carbon storage in suitable reservoirs. Such reservoirs will of course, only
provide reliable storage if they have a good structure and seal. Otherwise, the
carbon dioxide will find its way to the surface without the help of tectonic
activity. Such structures are best known in the petroleum industry, so it makes
sense that regardless of the lack of admission that carbon dioxide is intended
to be stored in petroleum reservoirs (and perhaps helping to displace oil and
gas that would not otherwise flow), this is ultimately where carbon dioxide will
be stored if the carbon storage scheme goes ahead.
Incriminating Behaviour
The one thing the Flat Earth theorists, Creationists, and religious fundamentalists including Church of God, Assemblies of
God, the Holy Inquisition, and Al Qaeda have in common is that they all try to
discredit the idea by attacking the person, instead of attacking the data to
discredit the idea. To further their own agenda, such cults deploy various
fallacies because in place of truthful arguments about verifiable facts;
polemics, fallacies, and outright fraud sound convincing (Archer, 1988a, 1988b,
1988c, 1988d; Brown, 1988; Falconer, 1988; Ritchie, 1988; Strahan, 1988; Price,
1990; Plimer, 1994). I have observed the same pattern of behaviour amongst the
global warming catastrophist camp (Royer et al., 2004; Oreskes, 2004; Armitage,
2005; Jones et al., 1990; Wang et al., 1990) with fallacies & abuses exposed by
(Shaviv & Veizer, 2004; by McIntyre & McKitrick, 2003, 2005;
Wegman et al., 2006; Carter, 2007; Keenan, 2007; Harper, 2007). Windshuttle & Elliot (1999) discuss the difference
between a false argument or fallacy and a correct argument.
The attribution of a rise in mean temperature trends coincident with
industrialisation to carbon emissions produced by industrialisation is clearly
demonstrated by Archibald (2007) to be based on a false cause. Slurs such as the
increasingly common application of the label, "Flat-Earther" to anyone who
attempts to discuss the implications of global warming from an evidence based
perspective are ad homenim (Carter, 2007). Ad homenim attacks are becoming
increasingly frequent and beginning to find their way into peer reviewed
literature (Eg. Armitage, 2005).
Claims of scientific consensus behind the idea that
global warming is a cause for alarm combine appeal to popularity with appeal to
authority (Oreskes, 2004). In an interesting twist, more than 19000 U.S. scientists have signed
the
petition
against measures to be implemented for the reduction of anthropogenic
contributions to greenhouse gases (http://www.oism.org/pproject). This
raises questions about fraud when considered alongside scientific consensus
claims.
While the "hockey stick" of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) is soundly discredited (by McIntyre & McKitrick, 2003, 2005;
Wegman et al., 2006), its proponents claimed that this discrediting of the
hockey stick did not matter. As it turns out, surface based thermometer readings
produce a "hockey stick" of their own. The hockey stick path of these measurements has been
explained by the heat island effect inherent in temperature readings taken
mostly from towns and cities where human activity raises mean daily temperatures
substantially as the towns and cities grow. While the vast majority of the
temperature recorders are situated in towns and cities - some within effective
distance of exhaust vents, heated buildings and bitumen car parks, Wang et al.
(1990) & Jones et al. (1990) claimed to have verified the exclusion of heat
island effected instrumentation from the current instrumental hockey-stick.
Keenan (2007) completely discredits this claim and alleges in a peer-reviewed
journal article, that it was made fraudulently.
As with religious extremists, the behaviour of global warming catastrophists
becomes increasingly serious. Harper (2007) reports that proponents of the
global warming panic have used death threats in an attempt to silence those who
seek to publicly discuss the evidence. Although not the objective of this article, I intend to dedicate a
separate page on this site to both global warming and Creationist howlers for
the purpose of demonstrating both the similarities of Creationist tactics with
global warming catastrophist tactics and the various kinds of fallacy used to deceive
or otherwise coerce the public into adopting an idea that is not supported by evidence.
Intellectual extortion is a tactic universally employed by political and
religious zealots of every stripe. A focus on the unacceptable consequences
however speculative, of making the wrong choice about global warming
demonstrates a tactic common to religious fundamentalists. Of particular note
are the Creationists who threaten those who disagree with them with the rather
speculative prospect of eternal damnation in Hell. It appears that the global
warming catastrophists are likewise trying to short-circuit rationality with the
threat of eternal damnation in Hell on Earth if we don't collectively accept
their dogma. Whether we fret about the, "The Day After Tomorrow", or simply
ponder, "An Inconvenient Truth", we are all being threatened by these people,
whether with purely speculative environmental consequences or direct threat's to
our own persons implicit in the libel and death threats deployed against the
critics of alarmism. This pattern of behaviour proves independently of the
scientific evidence that alarmism over global warming lacks merit and is likely
to form part of an elaborate economic swindle. One of the popular pieces of
research used to bludgeon reason from the public is the work of Nisbet (1990) on
the discovery of methane trapped in ice and permafrost around the world. On this
planet, methane is a limited resource and the climate has been much warmer in
the past without the so called, "runaway methane global warming". Certainly, if
any events of Planet Earth's past were indeed "runaway" events, the conditions
would remain permanently and immutable to human intervention. If anything, the
nearest to thing to runaway events this planet has ever experienced was the loss
of methane to anoxic bacteria (Plimer, 2001), the oxygenation of the atmosphere
by photosynthesising bacteria 2500 million years ago (Plimer 2001), and most
recently the loss of much of the planet's carbon dioxide over the last billion
years to photosynthesis.
Conclusion
The scientific evidence does not support alarm over global warming. Global
warming is not unprecedented, neither in rate nor in magnitude. While global
warming may lead to sea level rises, melting continental ice will avail arable
farmland; an increasingly diminishing commodity that is of greater benefit to
humanity than some over-priced waterfront real-estate. Global warming will
result in the retreat of deserts further extending arable farmland. Global
warming will also result in biological radiation making it easier for us to
conserve the biodiversity many of us are so fond of. Increasing atmospheric
carbon dioxide is not a cause of global warming and is either an indirect
product of warming or a product of deforestation.
Investigation of the evidence
exposes a number of tactical omissions, errors, and perhaps a hoax or two on the
part of the catastrophists. Tactics employed by those pushing a catastrophist agenda are
consistent with those used by other branches of pseudoscience such as
Creationism. The lack of support for alarm over global warming by scientific evidence is
certainly sufficient reason for some to evade discussion of the evidence by
focussing on attacking those who do wish to address the evidence. There are
strong economic and political arguments in favour of ignoring the evidence and
using alarm over global warming as propaganda to sell the government funding of
research and initiatives that will benefit select commercial sectors to the
exclusion of the tax payer.
The observed expansion of deserts during the current mildly "warm" period is
unprecedented in geological history. Deforestation is the only cause of
desertification aside from global cooling and represents the principle human
contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide. Yet, the emphasis of public attention on exaggerated greenhouse effects
only serves to divert public scrutiny from vastly more practical and important
issues such as moderating land clearance, not
to mention the desperate need for communities to decentralise sufficiently to
bring most services within walking distance of most residences (thereby reducing
reliance on motorised transport) before the impact of peak oil. It would appear
that the catastrophist movement is more concerned with curbing development in
underdeveloped countries than with vital environmental issues like the
expansion of deserts as a consequence of excessive and unnecessary
deforestation. Tragically, although desertification as a direct result of
excessive land clearance is a far greater threat to the ability of our
environment to support current human populations, this very real and well
documented threat is neglected in favour of what amounts to little more than
sensationalised science fiction.
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