Thursday, March 31, 2022

Green Energy in America Needs a Lot More Land: Map

Green Energy in America Needs a Lot More Land: Map

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-energy-land-use-economy/?s=03

The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy

Published: | Updated:

Corrects wind turbine spacing estimates in the 2nd paragraph, clarifies attributions to data sources and references projections from alternate studies.

At his international climate summit in April, President Joe Biden vowed to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. The goal will require sweeping changes in the power generation, transportation and manufacturing sectors. It will also require a lot of land.

Wind farms, solar installations and other forms of clean power tend to take up more space on a per-watt basis than their fossil-fuel-burning brethren. A 200-megawatt wind farm, for instance, might require spreading turbines over 13 square miles (36 square kilometres). A natural-gas power plant with that same generating capacity could fit onto a single city block.

Achieving Biden’s goal will require aggressively building more wind and solar farms, in many cases combined with giant batteries. To fulfill his vision of an emission-free grid by 2035, the U.S. needs to increase its carbon-free capacity by at least 150%. Expanding wind and solar by 10% annually until 2030 would require a chunk of land equal to the state of South Dakota, according to Princeton University estimates and an analysis by Bloomberg News. By 2050, when Biden wants the entire economy to be carbon free, the U.S. would need up to four additional South Dakotas to develop enough clean power to run all the electric vehicles, factories and more.

Power Densities: Renewables Need More Space

Land area needed to power a flat-screen TV, by energy source

Wind-energy footprint

including turbine spacing

296 m2

Hydropower

14 m2

Solar

0.8 m2

Coal

0.3 m2

Nuclear

0.1 m2

Natural gas

37 m2

Wind

Note: Assumes 100-watt television operating year-round
Source: van Zalk, John, Behrens, Paul, 2018, The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Generation

To be clear, Biden’s plan doesn’t need to entirely rest on wind and solar. Nuclear energy, which requires far less space, is also emission free. Same for hydroelectric power. Plus, wind farms can be installed at sea. Solar panels work wonderfully on rooftops. Wind turbines can be incorporated into pastureland. And plenty of companies are placing bets that fossil-fuel plants can be retrofitted to burn hydrogen or equipped with systems to capture their carbon dioxide emissions.

To get a sense of how much land the U.S. may need to meet Biden’s goals, Bloomberg News first analyzed data from the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to estimate how much land the U.S. currently uses to generate electricity. To show how that land-use picture could change by 2050, Bloomberg considered two of five detailed scenarios outlined by Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project—one requiring the least amount of land and one that calls for the most. Both pathways identify infrastructure and technological challenges and quantify health and environmental benefits, as well as necessary capital investment

There are many different paths the U.S. could take to eliminate greenhouse gases, and there’s little consensus among researchers regarding how much land the U.S. will ultimately need. A recent study by the U.K. think tank Carbon Tracker concluded that renewables actually require less space than fossil fuels. But no matter how you slice it, the U.S. will need to rethink land use for an emissions-free future.

Today, the U.S. Uses 81 Million Acres to Power Its Economy

51.5 million acres

Liquid biofuels: Soy Corn farming

8.7M

Hydropower

7.1M

Solar and wind energy farms

4.8M

Petroleum and gas pipeline easements

3.0M

Oil and gas drilling operations, fracking-sand mining

4.8M

Power line easements

0.6M

Coal mining, transport and waste storage operations

0.23M

Nuclear power plants and uranium mining

0.15M

Fossil-fuel power plants

Note: Liquid biofuels map depicts soy and corn farming. One dot equals 10,000 crop acres. About one-third of the nation’s corn and soy crops are used for biofuels.
Source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story. Maps are based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Department of Agriculture

Right now, the current U.S. energy sector requires about 81 million acres (33 million hectares) of land, according to the Bloomberg News analysis. That estimate includes not only energy sources fueling the electric grid, but also transportation, home-heating and manufacturing.

Energy Land-Use Framework

81 million acres

51.5 million acres

Biofuels

(dedicated corn for ethanol,

soy for biodiesel farmland)

8.7

Hydropower

6.7

Wind farms

(total footprint)

4.8

Power lines

3.5

Oil/

petroleum

products

4.4

Natural gas

0.07

Direct wind

footprint

0.6

Coal

0.5

Solar

0.23

Nuclear

0.15

Power plants

Note: Wind’s direct footprint includes only turbine bases and access roads.
Source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story.

Two-thirds of America’s total energy footprint is devoted to transportation fuels produced from agricultural crops, primarily corn grown for ethanol. It requires more land than all other power sources combined but provides just 5% of the nation’s energy, making it the most land-intensive major fuel source.

Here’s how 81 million acres of energy acres lumped together looks on a U.S. map. Our current energy footprint, according to the Bloomberg News analysis, is about the size of Iowa and Missouri combined, covering roughly 4% of the contiguous U.S. states.

Map source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story.

Princeton University’s Net-Zero America Project maps various pathways to reaching a carbon-free U.S. by 2050, and how much land it would take. Their most land-intensive plan eliminates all fossil fuels and nuclear plants. Wind and solar provide 98% of electric power by 2050. The U.S. energy footprint quadruples in size. Wind farms occupy land areas equivalent to Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The most land-intensive plan eliminates all fossil fuels and nuclear plants. Wind and solar provide 98% of electric power by 2050. The U.S. energy footprint quadruples in size. Wind farms occupy land areas equivalent to Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

In this highly electrified economy, wind and solar provide four times the electric power capacity of the 2020 U.S. grid. Electricity powers all vehicles, heats homes and powers many industrial processes. When demand peaks and the grid needs an extra boost, it will come from a mix of batteries, hydropower and combustion turbines burning carbon-free synthetic fuels and hydrogen.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

Is there even enough uninhabited land to build 250 million acres of new wind farms?

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

The short answer is yes, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

The contiguous U.S. is home to 654 million acres of pasture and 391 million acres of farmland. In many instances, wind turbines can be incorporated into those areas and have limited impact.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Plenty of U.S. ranch and farm owners already lease land for annual royalty payments, totaling $820 million last year.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

In Princeton's highest renewables scenario, 11% of electric power could come from offshore wind farms by 2050. Another 3% of generating capacity could come from rooftop solar. In sunnier places, such as California, rooftop solar could generate 74% of electricity, according to the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

If the U.S. wants a carbon-free economy by 2050 using the least amount of land, it will need to rely far less on wind and solar and instead build hundreds of nuclear plants and natural gas plants outfitted with systems to capture the carbon dioxide before it escapes into the atmosphere.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

In Princeton’s least land-intensive scenario, the current pace of wind and solar development remains constant, but carbon-capture and nuclear power grow at historically unprecedented rates.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Wind and solar would contribute 44% of electricity generation, and 50% would come from emission-free nuclear and natural gas power plants with carbon-capture technology. Methane, an especially potent emission that's a central component of natural gas, would be aggressively curtailed via better monitoring of pipelines and other equipment. Any leaks would be offset by systems that filter greenhouse gases from the air, improved farming methods and other means.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Under this scenario, the U.S. would need to build 250 nuclear plants with capacity of at least 1 gigawatt, or several thousand smaller modular reactors. Natural gas and nuclear energy are very compact power sources. A conventional 1-gigawatt reactor operating on 1,000 acres produces the same amount of energy as a wind farm spanning 100,000 acres.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Needless to say, expanding nuclear power will present serious land-use challenges. While no one wants a power plant in their backyard, many people don’t want nuclear power on their planet.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

To make 300 new natural-gas fired power plants emission-free, a network of carbon-capture pipelines and storage facilities would be built. That would require land easements totaling 500,000 acres, about half the size of Rhode Island. To drive down costs, Princeton estimates it will take about $100 billion in private and public investment in CO2 capture demonstration projects over the next decade.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

The most difficult land-use challenge in any scenario may be building transmission lines.

For example, in 2011, former President Barack Obama created the Rapid Response Team for Transmission to speed the permitting of five Western transmission line projects. Only one is under construction so far. Three still face permitting delays. The fifth was canceled.

Map sources: U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, TranWest Express, Portland General Electric, SunZia, Gateway West, Idaho Power, Department of Homeland Security

Transmission line capacity would need to more than triple under the high-renewable scenario laid out by the Princeton researchers. Without it, many new wind and solar projects would be stranded.

Map sources: U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, TranWest Express, Portland General Electric, SunZia, Gateway West, Idaho Power, Department of Homeland Security

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