2016 Senate Election Forecast 

2016 Senate Election Forecast

By JOSH KATZ UPDATED 35 minutes ago

The Democrats have a 58% chance of winning the Senate.

Last updated Tuesday, November 1 at 11:56 AM ET

Chance of winning

58%

Democrats

42%

Republicans

The Upshot’s elections model suggests that the Democrats are slight favorites to win the Senate, based on the latest state and national polls.

From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:

Get Updates

Get the latest updates to the Upshot's election forecast, presidential polling and the latest from NYT Politics desk.

Where the Race Has Shifted

To understand what is driving the national trend, it’s worth taking a look at the states where the winning probabilities have changed most over the last two weeks:

Republican chances

in Indiana

Democratic chances

in New Hampshire

Democratic chances

in Pennsylvania

Republican chances

in Nevada

Republican chances

in Florida

Republican chances

in Arizona

Democratic chances

in Missouri

Democratic chances

in North Carolina

Democratic chances

in Wisconsin

State-by-State Probabilities

To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model calculates win probabilities for each Senate race. In addition to 353 state polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling.

Likely Democratic

State	Dem. chance	Rep. chance
California	>99%	<1%
Vermont	>99%	<1%
New York	>99%	<1%
Maryland	>99%	<1%
Hawaii	>99%	<1%
Connecticut	>99%	<1%
Oregon	>99%	<1%
Washington	>99%	<1%
Colorado	98%	2%
Illinois	94%	6%
Wisconsin	85%	15%

Competitive

State	Dem. chance	Rep. chance
Indiana	61%	39%
New Hampshire	55%	45%
Pennsylvania	54%	46%
Nevada	53%	47%
North Carolina	39%	61%
Missouri	31%	69%

Likely Republican

State	Dem. chance	Rep. chance
Arizona	11%	89%
Florida	11%	89%
Louisiana	6%	94%
Kentucky	6%	94%
Iowa	2%	98%
Arkansas	1%	99%
Ohio	1%	99%
Georgia	<1%	>99%
Alabama	<1%	>99%
South Dakota	<1%	>99%
Oklahoma	<1%	>99%
North Dakota	<1%	>99%
Utah	<1%	>99%
Kansas	<1%	>99%
South Carolina	<1%	>99%
Idaho	<1%	>99%
Alaska	<1%	>99%

Hillary Clinton has an 88% chance to win →

Likely Outcomes

Some seat counts are much more likely than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.

Dem. Seats	Rep. Seats	Majority	Likelihood
45	55	+ 10 Rep.	<1%
46	54	+ 8 Rep.	2%		Current
47	53	+ 6 Rep.	7%
48	52	+ 4 Rep.	13%
49	51	+ 2 Rep.	18%
50	50	Even *	20%		Likeliest
51	49	+ 2 Dem.	17%
52	48	+ 4 Dem.	12%
53	47	+ 6 Dem.	7%
54	46	+ 8 Dem.	3%
55	45	+ 10 Dem.	1%
56	44	+ 12 Dem.	<1%

* The Vice President breaks ties in the Senate. The bar in the chart is divided to match the likelihood that the next president is either a Democrat or a Republican.

How Other Forecasts Compare

The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some use statistical models; others rely on reporting and experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets. We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for easy comparison.

		NYT	538	HuffPost	PW	PEC	DK	Cook	Roth.1	Sabato
Win Senate		58% Dem.	69% Dem.	82% Dem.	66% Dem.	70% Dem.	67% Dem.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup

Note: Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast.

State	Incumbent	NYT	538	HuffPost	PW	PEC	DK	Cook	Roth.1	Sabato
California	Retiring	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.		47 Democrats with a >85% chance2
Vermont	Leahy	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
New York	Schumer	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Maryland	Retiring	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Hawaii	Schatz	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Connecticut	Blumenthal	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Oregon	Wyden	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Washington	Murray	>99% Dem.	99% Dem.	99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	>99% Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Colorado	Bennet	98% Dem.	97% Dem.	99% Dem.	99% Dem.	98% Dem.	98% Dem.	Likely Dem.	Solid Dem.	Solid Dem.
Illinois	Kirk	94% Dem.	97% Dem.	99% Dem.	93% Dem.	98% Dem.	98% Dem.	Lean Dem.	Lean Dem.	Likely Dem.
Wisconsin	Johnson	85% Dem.	95% Dem.	98% Dem.	84% Dem.	96% Dem.	89% Dem.	Lean Dem.	Lean Dem.	Lean Dem.
Indiana	Retiring	61% Dem.	67% Dem.	98% Dem.	59% Dem.	72% Dem.	84% Dem.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
New Hampshire	Ayotte	55% Dem.	58% Dem.	67% Dem.	51% Dem.	50% Dem.	52% Rep.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Toomey	54% Dem.	71% Dem.	93% Dem.	72% Dem.	80% Dem.	67% Dem.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Nevada	Retiring	53% Dem.	61% Dem.	50% Dem.	62% Dem.	80% Rep.	58% Dem.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
North Carolina	Burr	61% Rep.	60% Rep.	82% Rep.	59% Rep.	62% Rep.	65% Rep.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Missouri	Blunt	69% Rep.	53% Dem.	91% Rep.	64% Rep.	72% Rep.	60% Rep.	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	McCain	89% Rep.	91% Rep.	99% Rep.	96% Rep.	98% Rep.	96% Rep.	Lean Rep.	Likely Rep.	Likely Rep.		47 Republicans with a >85% chance3
Florida	Rubio	89% Rep.	83% Rep.	99% Rep.	87% Rep.	90% Rep.	86% Rep.	Tossup	Lean Rep.	Lean Rep.
Louisiana	Retiring	94% Rep.	88% Rep.	99% Rep.	87% Rep.	96% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Likely Rep.
Kentucky	Paul	94% Rep.	93% Rep.	99% Rep.	95% Rep.	>99% Rep.	96% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Iowa	Grassley	98% Rep.	98% Rep.	99% Rep.	97% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Likely Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Arkansas	Boozman	99% Rep.	96% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Ohio	Portman	99% Rep.	96% Rep.	99% Rep.	98% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Lean Rep.	Likely Rep.	Solid Rep.
Georgia	Isakson	>99% Rep.	98% Rep.	99% Rep.	97% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Likely Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Alabama	Shelby	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
South Dakota	Thune	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Oklahoma	Lankford	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
North Dakota	Hoeven	>99% Rep.	98% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Utah	Lee	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Kansas	Moran	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
South Carolina	Scott	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	97% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Idaho	Crapo	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	99% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.
Alaska	Murkowski	>99% Rep.	97% Rep.	93% Rep.	99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	>99% Rep.	Likely Rep.	Solid Rep.	Solid Rep.

1Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.

2Democratic total includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats and 34 continuing seats.

3Republican total includes 30 continuing seats.

Solid
Dem.

Likely
Dem.

Lean
Dem.

Tossup

Lean
Rep.

Likely
Rep.

Solid
Rep.

Rolling the Dice

With the state-by-state probabilities in hand, we can randomly simulate all 34 Senate elections. Give it a try below. The spinners are calibrated to the current probabilities we’ve calculated for each state and programmed to move together — that is, be correlated to one another — just as they are in our model.

Democrats: ??

CLINTON PRESIDENCY

Republicans: ??

TRUMP PRESIDENCY

Likely Democratic

Calif.

Vt.

N.Y.

Md.

Hawaii

Conn.

Ore.

Wash.

Colo.

Ill.

Wis.

Competitive

Ind.

N.H.

Pa.

Nev.

N.C.

Mo.

Likely Republican

Ariz.

Fla.

La.

Ky.

Iowa

Ark.

Ohio

Ga.

Ala.

S.D.

Okla.

N.D.

Utah

Kan.

S.C.

Idaho

Alaska