Agencies: Center for Disease Control (CDC) / World Health Organization (WHO) / Department of Homeland Security (DHS) / Surgeon General
Universities: Harvard University / Yale University / Johns Hopkins University / Stanford University / Imperial College UK
Hospitals: Mt. Sinai Hospital / University of Pittsburg Hospital / Vanderbilt Medical School
Think Tanks: Cato Institute / University of Nebraska National Strategic Research Institute
This link provides an easier format for reading:
https://www.linkedin.com/…/how-do-we-safely-reopen-jacqueli…
Welcome to the Herd
By Jacqueline Cartier
While the motto is “you are not alone”, never in our history, have we felt more isolated. As states begin to open, there is a divide between those who are ready to move forward and those who, because of continued danger, are fearful of public contact. One says, my family is in danger if I don’t return to work; the other says, I am in danger if you do. It helps to understand the shifting scientific data, as we become more proficient at detecting the threat.
After 7+ weeks of fear and panic, things are beginning to ease. Yet, concern and anxiety remain for many. The culprit… COVID-19. The numbers quoted have been horrific. However, as data replaces predictions, we are gratefully doing much better than anticipated. We are now adapting to the new information being generated.
I will begin by saying that I am not a physician or epidemiologist; however, as a crisis management professional, I am often asked to dissect confusing & contradictory information and presenting it in a manner that all can understand, as a result, a different perspective often emerges.
As we reopen our economy and people return to working and socializing together, it is important to comprehend why we are receiving conflicting information. That understanding helps us to prepare a plan of action for regaining our lives. Separating fact from hyperbole is essential.
We’ll touch on several pertinent issues, understanding that some may be subject to change as new information becomes available:
Shelter-in-place Orders vs Herd Immunity
Masks & Transmission
Vaccinations
Perspective on Data
Testing
COVID-19 & Vaccines: The Novel (new) Coronavirus is a variant of the same old culprits SARS & MERS but a stronger variant, called SARS-CoV-2, and is from the same family as the common cold. It should be noted that we have never been able to develop a vaccine for any of these viruses. The seasonal flu has a vaccine that must be reformulated annually due to mutations, and according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), has only a limited efficiency rate, between 19%-60%.
Let’s remember that vaccines take on-average, 8-years to develop, many have taken decades, and some never come to be. Dr. David Nabarro, Professor and Global Health Chair at Imperial College London and former Special Adviser to the United Nations, has warned that in reference to the Coronavirus, we should make no absolute assumptions about a vaccine, adding that one may not appear at all.
“Expert” Contradictory Statements: As sources of information on the Coronavirus change and numbers continue to increase, we must view the risk in perspective. Balance is essential to creating long-term strategies. Part of the confusion is that well-intentioned specialists began by using projections based on inaccurate models, where even the most senior of experts got it wrong because their base data was flawed. Numbers are no longer theoretical; we have actual results, which are much less threatening than anticipated, causing experts to reverse prior recommendations.
Just a few weeks ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) insisted that complete societal isolation was the only way to proceed. “Flattening the curve” (where the numbers stop rising) was considered to be the only responsible action anyone should take, with the understanding that the virus could continually resurface until a vaccine was developed.
People around the globe listened and societies and economies completely shut down. Shelter-in-place went from a recommendation to an order. Every major country obliged… except for Sweden. They chose a herd immunity approach. The mortality rate per capita has been relatively identical. What made Sweden decide on a different route and has it been successful?
Immunity is a natural bodily function that comes from exposure, either through vaccination or direct contact. Developing that immunity as quickly as possible would save the greatest number of lives.
The Swedish Model: On April 29th Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of WHO’s Emergencies Program, praised Sweden’s tactics, “I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model, if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns”.
Sweden determined that it could achieve faster and more accurate results with herd immunity, where 60-80% of the population develops immunity through exposure, ultimately eliminating the possibility of transmission because the virus has nowhere to go. Yale’s medRxiv (health sciences) group says that Coronavirus immunity would last at least 1-year and potentially a lifetime (still too early to determine).
Lockdown and herd immunity similarities
• Both require time for immunity to be developed
• Both will include deaths of the most vulnerable
• Both require testing measures
• Both emphasize additional sanitation procedures (washing hands, cleaning surfaces, etc.)
• Both require shelter-in-place containment, if exhibiting symptoms (with or without testing)
• Both approaches include protecting the most vulnerable… the elderly and those who are immunocompromised
• Both understand the seriousness of this medical crisis
• Both are effective at containing a pandemic
Those who favor herd immunity over more stringent measures, cite several reasons:
• A break in societal interactions and cohesiveness
• The long-term effect on children
• The toll on mental health
• Economic collapse
• Percentage of death rate relative to other health issues
• The limited target demographic
• The lack of vaccine development with similar viruses
One of the most important considerations is the predictable return of the virus, as those in isolation re-engage with others, causing a resurgence which is currently predicted for this fall – creating the V-shape model that will reoccur continually, each time a bit lower than the previous, until it becomes negligible. Harvard University’s TH Chan School of Public Health published a study (March 2020) stating, “One-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19”, and went on to say, “these measures may be necessary into 2022”.
Triggering the body’s immune system occurs via vaccine or exposure. Yohan Norberg, Sr Fellow at the CATO Institute says that it could take several years to develop a vaccine and that the total lockdown approach of most nations, aimed at flattening the curve, only postpones deaths. “No society can be shut down completely and shut down the economy for more than a year, without ruining society and the economy entirely. That will kill many more people than does the virus.” We must keep in mind that you can’t shelter-in-place if you no longer have a shelter.
The Numbers: Certainly, even a single life lost is tragic, yet we acknowledge that none of us live a risk-free life. We must evaluate the information received, in perspective, if we are to establish appropriate risk and safety measures.
Dr. Brendan Carr, Mt. Sinai Emergency Medicine, expressed concern about the health crisis that is developing. People are being deterred from going to the hospital and others are simply too scared. This can be deadly, and all deaths matter, not just those of the virus. Dr. Donald Yealy, Chair of Emergency Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says that the hospital is only using 2% of its beds for COVID-19 patients.
Another consideration… dying with the Coronavirus is not the same as dying of the Coronavirus, so we must be cautious about the number of deaths being attributed to the virus. Also, mortality data includes both confirmed and presumptive (unconfirmed probability) cases.
Regarding the numbers, maintain perspective:
United States (Population: 331 Million)
5/5/20 Positive: 1,171,510 (.004 of the population) / Deaths: 67,456 (.0002)
Transmission: While this virus can produce strong symptoms, according to the Department of Homeland Security, it is remarkably easy to kill… simple soap & water or I-min of sunlight will do the job.
According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Coronavirus is mainly transmitted through "respiratory droplets" when symptomatic people sneeze or cough. It is not an airborne virus. Johns Hopkins University says that 86% of those who test positive, are asymptomatic (no sneezing, coughing, or other symptoms).
Therefore, if Johns Hopkins is correct and 86% of those who test positive are asymptomatic (not coughing or sneezing) and transmission is due primarily to droplets from coughing and sneezing (even on surfaces where droplets land), then those who are asymptomatic provide minimal, although not impossible, danger, especially if they are 6-feet apart.
Others agree. COVID-19 transmission via aerosol is possible but unlikely, according to Josh Santarpia, Research Director of the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, at the University of Nebraska's National Strategic Research Institute, who said, "To my knowledge, there is no definitive evidence of transmission, where aerosol was the only possible route”.
Masks: On March 2nd, Surgeon General Jerome Adams urged the public to “Stop buying masks; they are not effective in preventing the general public from catching Coronavirus”. On February 27th William Schaffner, an infectious disease physician and professor at Vanderbilt School of Medicine says, “Wearing a face mask can be uncomfortable and exhausting to use over time; they’re not designed to be worn eight hours a day. Plus, if a mask does not fit your face properly, you may end up touching your face more than if you were not wearing one at all.”
Stanford University’s Dr. Scott Atlas agrees. He has stated that the masks being used by most people, provide only minimal protection (2% virus blockage) because 70% of the air (and virus) flow right through the mask, and the rest enters along the sides where there is no seal, thus providing only a minor barrier. The exception is the N95 mask, which filters down to particles 0.3 microns (the Coronavirus measures between .05 and .2 microns).
The wearing of masks is for different reasons. For those who are coughing and sneezing, non-surgical masks are effective in preventing large particles expelled by the user; the virus itself will slip right through. It also serves as a reminder, that we are still amid an active pandemic and must exercise caution. It’s an added safety measure, around those who are extremely vulnerable… where every precaution should be observed. On a psychological level, it helps some to feel safer. On a legal basis, many states are requiring the wearing of masks in public venues.
Testing: A notable difference between the two approaches is the targeted objective. While isolation aims for 0% positive cases, herd immunity aims for 100% (equal to 100% vaccinated/immune).
COVID-19 testing is only valid the moment it is given. Once that person leaves, they may contract the virus at their very next encounter. Thus, unless you are symptomatic and need confirmation; or plan on daily testing, the results of widespread testing may provide entire communities with inaccurate models and individuals with a false sense of security.
Therefore, as we enter new phases of awareness on how this virus spreads, serology testing for antibodies appears to offer the best source for evaluating our evolving status.
When it comes to your health, be smart. If you are considered high-risk, take extra precautions. Be respectful of those who may feel differently. Keep on top of changes.
You’ve got this! Welcome to the herd.
Jacqueline Cartier is CEO of Winning Images, a boutique firm serving clients across the nation. She is a newspaper columnist, magazine publisher, and author. Cartier has worked for President Bush and numerous government and corporate leaders on crisis management, communications, and public affairs.
Hospitals: Mt. Sinai Hospital / University of Pittsburg Hospital / Vanderbilt Medical School
Think Tanks: Cato Institute / University of Nebraska National Strategic Research Institute
This link provides an easier format for reading:
https://www.linkedin.com/…/how-do-we-safely-reopen-jacqueli…
Welcome to the Herd
By Jacqueline Cartier
While the motto is “you are not alone”, never in our history, have we felt more isolated. As states begin to open, there is a divide between those who are ready to move forward and those who, because of continued danger, are fearful of public contact. One says, my family is in danger if I don’t return to work; the other says, I am in danger if you do. It helps to understand the shifting scientific data, as we become more proficient at detecting the threat.
After 7+ weeks of fear and panic, things are beginning to ease. Yet, concern and anxiety remain for many. The culprit… COVID-19. The numbers quoted have been horrific. However, as data replaces predictions, we are gratefully doing much better than anticipated. We are now adapting to the new information being generated.
I will begin by saying that I am not a physician or epidemiologist; however, as a crisis management professional, I am often asked to dissect confusing & contradictory information and presenting it in a manner that all can understand, as a result, a different perspective often emerges.
As we reopen our economy and people return to working and socializing together, it is important to comprehend why we are receiving conflicting information. That understanding helps us to prepare a plan of action for regaining our lives. Separating fact from hyperbole is essential.
We’ll touch on several pertinent issues, understanding that some may be subject to change as new information becomes available:
Shelter-in-place Orders vs Herd Immunity
Masks & Transmission
Vaccinations
Perspective on Data
Testing
COVID-19 & Vaccines: The Novel (new) Coronavirus is a variant of the same old culprits SARS & MERS but a stronger variant, called SARS-CoV-2, and is from the same family as the common cold. It should be noted that we have never been able to develop a vaccine for any of these viruses. The seasonal flu has a vaccine that must be reformulated annually due to mutations, and according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), has only a limited efficiency rate, between 19%-60%.
Let’s remember that vaccines take on-average, 8-years to develop, many have taken decades, and some never come to be. Dr. David Nabarro, Professor and Global Health Chair at Imperial College London and former Special Adviser to the United Nations, has warned that in reference to the Coronavirus, we should make no absolute assumptions about a vaccine, adding that one may not appear at all.
“Expert” Contradictory Statements: As sources of information on the Coronavirus change and numbers continue to increase, we must view the risk in perspective. Balance is essential to creating long-term strategies. Part of the confusion is that well-intentioned specialists began by using projections based on inaccurate models, where even the most senior of experts got it wrong because their base data was flawed. Numbers are no longer theoretical; we have actual results, which are much less threatening than anticipated, causing experts to reverse prior recommendations.
Just a few weeks ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) insisted that complete societal isolation was the only way to proceed. “Flattening the curve” (where the numbers stop rising) was considered to be the only responsible action anyone should take, with the understanding that the virus could continually resurface until a vaccine was developed.
People around the globe listened and societies and economies completely shut down. Shelter-in-place went from a recommendation to an order. Every major country obliged… except for Sweden. They chose a herd immunity approach. The mortality rate per capita has been relatively identical. What made Sweden decide on a different route and has it been successful?
Immunity is a natural bodily function that comes from exposure, either through vaccination or direct contact. Developing that immunity as quickly as possible would save the greatest number of lives.
The Swedish Model: On April 29th Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director of WHO’s Emergencies Program, praised Sweden’s tactics, “I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model, if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns”.
Sweden determined that it could achieve faster and more accurate results with herd immunity, where 60-80% of the population develops immunity through exposure, ultimately eliminating the possibility of transmission because the virus has nowhere to go. Yale’s medRxiv (health sciences) group says that Coronavirus immunity would last at least 1-year and potentially a lifetime (still too early to determine).
Lockdown and herd immunity similarities
• Both require time for immunity to be developed
• Both will include deaths of the most vulnerable
• Both require testing measures
• Both emphasize additional sanitation procedures (washing hands, cleaning surfaces, etc.)
• Both require shelter-in-place containment, if exhibiting symptoms (with or without testing)
• Both approaches include protecting the most vulnerable… the elderly and those who are immunocompromised
• Both understand the seriousness of this medical crisis
• Both are effective at containing a pandemic
Those who favor herd immunity over more stringent measures, cite several reasons:
• A break in societal interactions and cohesiveness
• The long-term effect on children
• The toll on mental health
• Economic collapse
• Percentage of death rate relative to other health issues
• The limited target demographic
• The lack of vaccine development with similar viruses
One of the most important considerations is the predictable return of the virus, as those in isolation re-engage with others, causing a resurgence which is currently predicted for this fall – creating the V-shape model that will reoccur continually, each time a bit lower than the previous, until it becomes negligible. Harvard University’s TH Chan School of Public Health published a study (March 2020) stating, “One-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19”, and went on to say, “these measures may be necessary into 2022”.
Triggering the body’s immune system occurs via vaccine or exposure. Yohan Norberg, Sr Fellow at the CATO Institute says that it could take several years to develop a vaccine and that the total lockdown approach of most nations, aimed at flattening the curve, only postpones deaths. “No society can be shut down completely and shut down the economy for more than a year, without ruining society and the economy entirely. That will kill many more people than does the virus.” We must keep in mind that you can’t shelter-in-place if you no longer have a shelter.
The Numbers: Certainly, even a single life lost is tragic, yet we acknowledge that none of us live a risk-free life. We must evaluate the information received, in perspective, if we are to establish appropriate risk and safety measures.
Dr. Brendan Carr, Mt. Sinai Emergency Medicine, expressed concern about the health crisis that is developing. People are being deterred from going to the hospital and others are simply too scared. This can be deadly, and all deaths matter, not just those of the virus. Dr. Donald Yealy, Chair of Emergency Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says that the hospital is only using 2% of its beds for COVID-19 patients.
Another consideration… dying with the Coronavirus is not the same as dying of the Coronavirus, so we must be cautious about the number of deaths being attributed to the virus. Also, mortality data includes both confirmed and presumptive (unconfirmed probability) cases.
Regarding the numbers, maintain perspective:
United States (Population: 331 Million)
5/5/20 Positive: 1,171,510 (.004 of the population) / Deaths: 67,456 (.0002)
Transmission: While this virus can produce strong symptoms, according to the Department of Homeland Security, it is remarkably easy to kill… simple soap & water or I-min of sunlight will do the job.
According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Coronavirus is mainly transmitted through "respiratory droplets" when symptomatic people sneeze or cough. It is not an airborne virus. Johns Hopkins University says that 86% of those who test positive, are asymptomatic (no sneezing, coughing, or other symptoms).
Therefore, if Johns Hopkins is correct and 86% of those who test positive are asymptomatic (not coughing or sneezing) and transmission is due primarily to droplets from coughing and sneezing (even on surfaces where droplets land), then those who are asymptomatic provide minimal, although not impossible, danger, especially if they are 6-feet apart.
Others agree. COVID-19 transmission via aerosol is possible but unlikely, according to Josh Santarpia, Research Director of the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Program, at the University of Nebraska's National Strategic Research Institute, who said, "To my knowledge, there is no definitive evidence of transmission, where aerosol was the only possible route”.
Masks: On March 2nd, Surgeon General Jerome Adams urged the public to “Stop buying masks; they are not effective in preventing the general public from catching Coronavirus”. On February 27th William Schaffner, an infectious disease physician and professor at Vanderbilt School of Medicine says, “Wearing a face mask can be uncomfortable and exhausting to use over time; they’re not designed to be worn eight hours a day. Plus, if a mask does not fit your face properly, you may end up touching your face more than if you were not wearing one at all.”
Stanford University’s Dr. Scott Atlas agrees. He has stated that the masks being used by most people, provide only minimal protection (2% virus blockage) because 70% of the air (and virus) flow right through the mask, and the rest enters along the sides where there is no seal, thus providing only a minor barrier. The exception is the N95 mask, which filters down to particles 0.3 microns (the Coronavirus measures between .05 and .2 microns).
The wearing of masks is for different reasons. For those who are coughing and sneezing, non-surgical masks are effective in preventing large particles expelled by the user; the virus itself will slip right through. It also serves as a reminder, that we are still amid an active pandemic and must exercise caution. It’s an added safety measure, around those who are extremely vulnerable… where every precaution should be observed. On a psychological level, it helps some to feel safer. On a legal basis, many states are requiring the wearing of masks in public venues.
Testing: A notable difference between the two approaches is the targeted objective. While isolation aims for 0% positive cases, herd immunity aims for 100% (equal to 100% vaccinated/immune).
COVID-19 testing is only valid the moment it is given. Once that person leaves, they may contract the virus at their very next encounter. Thus, unless you are symptomatic and need confirmation; or plan on daily testing, the results of widespread testing may provide entire communities with inaccurate models and individuals with a false sense of security.
Therefore, as we enter new phases of awareness on how this virus spreads, serology testing for antibodies appears to offer the best source for evaluating our evolving status.
When it comes to your health, be smart. If you are considered high-risk, take extra precautions. Be respectful of those who may feel differently. Keep on top of changes.
You’ve got this! Welcome to the herd.
Jacqueline Cartier is CEO of Winning Images, a boutique firm serving clients across the nation. She is a newspaper columnist, magazine publisher, and author. Cartier has worked for President Bush and numerous government and corporate leaders on crisis management, communications, and public affairs.
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