Thursday, March 31, 2022

Green Energy in America Needs a Lot More Land: Map

Green Energy in America Needs a Lot More Land: Map

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-energy-land-use-economy/?s=03

The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy

By Dave Merrill
Published: | Updated:

Corrects wind turbine spacing estimates in the 2nd paragraph, clarifies attributions to data sources and references projections from alternate studies.

At his international climate summit in April, President Joe Biden vowed to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. The goal will require sweeping changes in the power generation, transportation and manufacturing sectors. It will also require a lot of land.

Wind farms, solar installations and other forms of clean power tend to take up more space on a per-watt basis than their fossil-fuel-burning brethren. A 200-megawatt wind farm, for instance, might require spreading turbines over 13 square miles (36 square kilometres). A natural-gas power plant with that same generating capacity could fit onto a single city block.

Achieving Biden’s goal will require aggressively building more wind and solar farms, in many cases combined with giant batteries. To fulfill his vision of an emission-free grid by 2035, the U.S. needs to increase its carbon-free capacity by at least 150%. Expanding wind and solar by 10% annually until 2030 would require a chunk of land equal to the state of South Dakota, according to Princeton University estimates and an analysis by Bloomberg News. By 2050, when Biden wants the entire economy to be carbon free, the U.S. would need up to four additional South Dakotas to develop enough clean power to run all the electric vehicles, factories and more.

Power Densities: Renewables Need More Space

Land area needed to power a flat-screen TV, by energy source

Wind-energy footprint

including turbine spacing

296 m2

Hydropower

14 m2

Solar

0.8 m2

Coal

0.3 m2

Nuclear

0.1 m2

Natural gas

37 m2

Wind

Note: Assumes 100-watt television operating year-round
Source: van Zalk, John, Behrens, Paul, 2018, The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Generation

To be clear, Biden’s plan doesn’t need to entirely rest on wind and solar. Nuclear energy, which requires far less space, is also emission free. Same for hydroelectric power. Plus, wind farms can be installed at sea. Solar panels work wonderfully on rooftops. Wind turbines can be incorporated into pastureland. And plenty of companies are placing bets that fossil-fuel plants can be retrofitted to burn hydrogen or equipped with systems to capture their carbon dioxide emissions.

To get a sense of how much land the U.S. may need to meet Biden’s goals, Bloomberg News first analyzed data from the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to estimate how much land the U.S. currently uses to generate electricity. To show how that land-use picture could change by 2050, Bloomberg considered two of five detailed scenarios outlined by Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project—one requiring the least amount of land and one that calls for the most. Both pathways identify infrastructure and technological challenges and quantify health and environmental benefits, as well as necessary capital investment

There are many different paths the U.S. could take to eliminate greenhouse gases, and there’s little consensus among researchers regarding how much land the U.S. will ultimately need. A recent study by the U.K. think tank Carbon Tracker concluded that renewables actually require less space than fossil fuels. But no matter how you slice it, the U.S. will need to rethink land use for an emissions-free future.

Today, the U.S. Uses 81 Million Acres to Power Its Economy

51.5 million acres

Liquid biofuels: ◼ Soy ◼ Corn farming

8.7M

Hydropower

7.1M

◼ Solar and ◼ wind energy farms

4.8M

Petroleum and gas pipeline easements

3.0M

Oil and gas drilling operations, fracking-sand mining

4.8M

Power line easements

0.6M

Coal mining, transport and waste storage operations

0.23M

Nuclear power plants and uranium mining

0.15M

Fossil-fuel power plants

Note: Liquid biofuels map depicts soy and corn farming. One dot equals 10,000 crop acres. About one-third of the nation’s corn and soy crops are used for biofuels.
Source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story. Maps are based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Department of Agriculture

Right now, the current U.S. energy sector requires about 81 million acres (33 million hectares) of land, according to the Bloomberg News analysis. That estimate includes not only energy sources fueling the electric grid, but also transportation, home-heating and manufacturing.

Energy Land-Use Framework

81 million acres

51.5 million acres

Biofuels

(dedicated corn for ethanol,

soy for biodiesel farmland)

8.7

Hydropower

6.7

Wind farms

(total footprint)

4.8

Power lines

3.5

Oil/

petroleum

products

4.4

Natural gas

0.07

Direct wind

footprint

0.6

Coal

0.5

Solar

0.23

Nuclear

0.15

Power plants

Note: Wind’s direct footprint includes only turbine bases and access roads.
Source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story.

Two-thirds of America’s total energy footprint is devoted to transportation fuels produced from agricultural crops, primarily corn grown for ethanol. It requires more land than all other power sources combined but provides just 5% of the nation’s energy, making it the most land-intensive major fuel source.

Here’s how 81 million acres of energy acres lumped together looks on a U.S. map. Our current energy footprint, according to the Bloomberg News analysis, is about the size of Iowa and Missouri combined, covering roughly 4% of the contiguous U.S. states.

Map source: Current land-use estimates are based on a Bloomberg News analysis of data from several sources, including the U.S. Departments of Energy, Interior and Agriculture and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A methodology and complete list of sources is available at the end of the story.

Princeton University’s Net-Zero America Project maps various pathways to reaching a carbon-free U.S. by 2050, and how much land it would take. Their most land-intensive plan eliminates all fossil fuels and nuclear plants. Wind and solar provide 98% of electric power by 2050. The U.S. energy footprint quadruples in size. Wind farms occupy land areas equivalent to Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

The most land-intensive plan eliminates all fossil fuels and nuclear plants. Wind and solar provide 98% of electric power by 2050. The U.S. energy footprint quadruples in size. Wind farms occupy land areas equivalent to Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

In this highly electrified economy, wind and solar provide four times the electric power capacity of the 2020 U.S. grid. Electricity powers all vehicles, heats homes and powers many industrial processes. When demand peaks and the grid needs an extra boost, it will come from a mix of batteries, hydropower and combustion turbines burning carbon-free synthetic fuels and hydrogen.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

Is there even enough uninhabited land to build 250 million acres of new wind farms?

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

The short answer is yes, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

The contiguous U.S. is home to 654 million acres of pasture and 391 million acres of farmland. In many instances, wind turbines can be incorporated into those areas and have limited impact.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Plenty of U.S. ranch and farm owners already lease land for annual royalty payments, totaling $820 million last year.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

In Princeton's highest renewables scenario, 11% of electric power could come from offshore wind farms by 2050. Another 3% of generating capacity could come from rooftop solar. In sunnier places, such as California, rooftop solar could generate 74% of electricity, according to the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Map sources: Bloomberg News analysis of the National Land Cover Database, Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, U.S. Department of Agriculture

If the U.S. wants a carbon-free economy by 2050 using the least amount of land, it will need to rely far less on wind and solar and instead build hundreds of nuclear plants and natural gas plants outfitted with systems to capture the carbon dioxide before it escapes into the atmosphere.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

In Princeton’s least land-intensive scenario, the current pace of wind and solar development remains constant, but carbon-capture and nuclear power grow at historically unprecedented rates.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Wind and solar would contribute 44% of electricity generation, and 50% would come from emission-free nuclear and natural gas power plants with carbon-capture technology. Methane, an especially potent emission that's a central component of natural gas, would be aggressively curtailed via better monitoring of pipelines and other equipment. Any leaks would be offset by systems that filter greenhouse gases from the air, improved farming methods and other means.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Under this scenario, the U.S. would need to build 250 nuclear plants with capacity of at least 1 gigawatt, or several thousand smaller modular reactors. Natural gas and nuclear energy are very compact power sources. A conventional 1-gigawatt reactor operating on 1,000 acres produces the same amount of energy as a wind farm spanning 100,000 acres.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

Needless to say, expanding nuclear power will present serious land-use challenges. While no one wants a power plant in their backyard, many people don’t want nuclear power on their planet.

Map source: 2050 wind and solar footprint: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project, Bloomberg News analysis

To make 300 new natural-gas fired power plants emission-free, a network of carbon-capture pipelines and storage facilities would be built. That would require land easements totaling 500,000 acres, about half the size of Rhode Island. To drive down costs, Princeton estimates it will take about $100 billion in private and public investment in CO2 capture demonstration projects over the next decade.

Map source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

The most difficult land-use challenge in any scenario may be building transmission lines.

For example, in 2011, former President Barack Obama created the Rapid Response Team for Transmission to speed the permitting of five Western transmission line projects. Only one is under construction so far. Three still face permitting delays. The fifth was canceled.

Map sources: U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, TranWest Express, Portland General Electric, SunZia, Gateway West, Idaho Power, Department of Homeland Security

Transmission line capacity would need to more than triple under the high-renewable scenario laid out by the Princeton researchers. Without it, many new wind and solar projects would be stranded.

Map sources: U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, TranWest Express, Portland General Electric, SunZia, Gateway West, Idaho Power, Department of Homeland Security

Editors: Joe Ryan and Alex Tribou
With assistance from Christopher Cannon

METHODOLOGY

The following section will describe sources and additional information, where applicable, for each visualization in the story. This will include sources and notes to describe the Bloomberg News analysis of current energy land use, as well as additional notes to further explain how maps depict Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project.

Chart: Power Densities: Renewables Need More Space
Source: van Zalk, John, Behrens, Paul, 2018, The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Generation

Additional information: Power density is for electricity production, electrical power produced per horizontal m2 of surface area. Estimates are median values of 177 different density studies. Medians incorporate capacity factors and account for the total footprint, including surface area used in additional infrastructure, not just the power plant. Estimates are for current infrastructure and do not project future efficiency advances since study dates.

Map: Today, the U.S. Uses 81 Million Acres to Power Its Economy
Source for content within the maps: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Department of Agriculture:

(Sources and additional information for acreage estimates are detailed in the next section)

Chart: Energy Land-Use Framework
The current 81 million-acre U.S. land-use figure is a Bloomberg News analysis of current land-use estimates. All significant aspects of the energy stream were estimated. In some cases, raw materials, production processes and waste were included.

Following are sources and more information for each energy type.

Current onshore natural gas production
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; National Renewable Energy Laboratory; American Geosciences Institute; The National Academies of Sciences, Institute of Medicine, 2015, Health Impact of Shale Gas Extraction, Ch. 3, Geographic Footprint of Shale Gas Extraction; Office of Pipeline Safety, PHMSA Pipeline Safety Program: U.S. Department of Transportation;

Additional information: Well acreage for conventional drilling pads and access roads was estimated at 1.5 acre per well, 7 acres for fracked wells (assumes larger well pads, additional traffic, liquid pipelines), 110,000 acres for gas processing plants and 2.9 million acres for gas pipeline easements (75-foot wide). Bloomberg estimate of processing plant sizes based on industry literature.

Net energy exports
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Additional information: Net energy exports accounted for 3.7% of total U.S. energy production in 2020 according to the Energy Information Administration. Natural gas exports accounted for 8.5% of total U.S. production. Petroleum products net exports were negligible. It is unlikely that specific wells or natural gas production facilities served only energy export customers, so no land-use adjustment was made for gas exports.

Existing crude oil and petroleum products (such as gasoline) infrastructure
Sources: Bloomberg analysis of Department of Energy and Bureau of Land Management estimates; Refinery data: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical Information; Pipeline acreage: Bloomberg analysis of Bureau of Transportation Statistics data

Additional information: Land-use total includes: 639,000 acres for conventional wells, 536,000 for fracked wells, 236,000 acres for refineries and 2 million acres for pipeline easements.

Existing fossil-fuel power plants
Sources: Environmental impacts of operating 1000-MW(e)-equivalent electric power plants for non-nuclear alternative generating: Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Stevens, Landon, 2017, The Footprint of Energy, Strata Policy

Additional information: Instead of being added to the fossil-fuel energy stream in current energy footprint maps, 150,000 acres of coal and natural gas power plant footprints are shown separately on maps as their total is used in Princeton 2050 scenarios for siting future nuclear and carbon-capture equipped gas plants.

Existing offshore wells
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Additional information: Offshore energy exploration accounted for 0.15% of total U.S. producing gas wells and 0.7% of U.S. oil wells. No land-use acreage was added for offshore facilities.

Existing onshore Alaska pipelines and wells
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Additional information: Alaska energy infrastructure were not included in totals as data comparisons are relative to 1.9 billion U.S. contiguous state acreage. Alaska oil production accounted for 3.8% of U.S. 2019 total.

Existing coal infrastructure
Sources: U.S. Energy Department; Federal Railroad Administration; Association of American Railroads; Stevens, Landon, 2017, The Footprint of Energy, Strata Policy;

Additional information: Coal rail freight is equal to 31.4% of all rail tonnage. Only that percentage of total U.S. freight rail mileage was added to coal land-use footprint. Easement widths were calculated at 100 feet for 43,960 miles of track. Coal exports accounted for 16% of U.S. production per U.S. Energy Department. Representative land area devoted to exported coal was subtracted from domestic coal mining land footprint. Coal waste storage of 73,000 acres is included in the coal footprint.

Existing nuclear footprint
Sources: Plant site description: Nuclear Regulatory Commission; 2020 capacity: Energy Information Administration; Uranium mining, waste storage: Stevens, Landon, 2017, The Footprint of Energy, Strata Policy;

Additional information: Most power-plant uranium is mined abroad. The land-use figures are as if uranium is mined and processed domestically. Active power plant acreage was estimated at 832 acres per 1GW capacity. Waste storage was added for decommissioned plants and four special waste storage sites. Acreage estimates do not include reservoirs or artificial lakes used at several sites for plant cooling. According to NRC data, reservoirs, some of which are also a source for hydroelectric power, would add an additional 133,000 acres to U.S nuclear footprint.

Existing solar power
Sources: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Additional information: Historic utility scale solar capacity-weighted average is 7.3 acres per megawatt, for 2013-2017 solar installations, 3.7 acres per megawatt, for 2018-2020 solar installations. Residential solar panels mounted on rooftops were not added to land-use totals.

Existing wind power
Sources: National Renewable Energy Laboratory; American Clean Power Association ( formerly American Wind Energy Association ); WINDExchange: U.S. Department of Energy

Additional information: Wind’s direct footprint includes only turbine bases and access roads. The direct land-use impact of a single wind turbine foundation and access road is estimated at 1 acre per turbine, per NREL. The indirect impact or spacing requirements of a wind farm—with multiple turbines—necessitates additional spacing acres. Spacing estimates were added at the following rates: 2000-2009, 85 acres per MW; 2009-2013, 60 acres per MW; 2013-2020, 44.7 acres per MW. Cumulative new capacity installations for 2009, 2013 and 2020 per Department of Energy WINDExchange data.

Existing power lines
Sources: Power line mileage: U.S. Department of Energy; Easement width average: Harris Williams & Co.

Additional information: Land cleared for power line transmission easements are totaled and represented separately and not distributed to each fuel source. Easement widths were calculated at 88 feet for 450,000 miles of high voltage power lines.

Existing hydropower
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Bureau of Reclamation, Department of the Interior; Stevens, Landon, 2017, The Footprint of Energy, Strata Policy

Additional information: In 2019 hydropower capacity was 79.7 GW per U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Hydropower acreage estimates are from the Strata’s Dam Database. Reservoirs and switchyards occupy on average 238 acres per average annual megawatt capacity. Quarries and gravel pits— that produce aggregate for concrete used in dam construction—add an additional 67 acres per average MW capacity. The capacity factor for hydropower was 35.8%. In 2019 hydropower average capacity was 28,549 megawatts, for a total of 8.7 million acres needed for hydropower.

Existing biomass and biofuels
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Feb. 2021

Additional information: Corn for ethanol and soy for biodiesel acreage estimates are from the USDA. Liquid biofuels map depicts soy and corn farming. One dot equals 10,000 crop acres. About one-third of the nation’s corn and soy crops are used for biofuels.

Wood biomass and waste: Were not analyzed for this study due to dual-use of land associated with wood biomass and limited growth potential of waste energy.

Existing geothermal: Produces less than 0.3% percent of U.S. energy and was not included.

Princeton 2050 land-use projections:
All 2050 land-use projections are Princeton’s. Maps showing Princeton’s estimates of future new energy land-use growth include the current 2021 U.S. footprint, which is from Bloomberg analysis. Acreage is removed from the current U.S. footprint where Princeton 2050 scenarios forecast infrastructure is no longer producing energy in 2050. For example, coal's footprint is eliminated in both 2050 scenarios. The natural gas footprint declines 20% in a scenario where renewable growth is constrained and declines 90% in the highly-renewable scenario.

Future battery storage land use: In Princeton's 2050 highly-electrified scenario, the footprint for battery storage is minimal and not shown. For 186 GW of battery storage capacity in 2050, a Bloomberg footprint estimate is 2,000 acres.

Estimates of pasture/range, forest, cropland, urban areas are adapted from data published in 2017 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service in a report called the Major Uses of Land in the United States (MLU)

2050 carbon capture infrastructure map
Source: Princeton University’s Net-Zero America project

High-voltage transmission line project map:
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, TranWest Express, Portland General Electric, SunZia, Gateway West, Idaho Power, Department of Homeland Security.

Additional information: Windspeed estimates were collected from states which used various data collection methods, thus data variance exists at state borders.

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