IMMIGRATION DECISION WILL ERODE OBAMA SUPPORT

IMMIGRATION DECISION WILL ERODE OBAMA SUPPORT

         By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

     Published on DickMorris.com on July 28, 2010    

When Judge Susan Bolton granted an injunction halting the enforcement
of key provisions of the Arizona immigration enforcement law, she ruled
in favor of the Justice Department's position, but against the
president's political interest.   

Had the judge sustained this law, it would have made moot Obama's
opposition to the Arizona law.  As it is, she has transformed the law
into a big campaign issue against Obama.  Now the president is standing
in the way of a state that wants to enforce the law that he won't.    

The Arizona law is massively popular in the United States.  Over 60
percent of all American voters support it.  But the president has
sought and has succeeded in stopping it from taking effect.  Now this
majority -- close to two-thirds of the electorate -- that backs the law
will be able to focus their blame for its non-enforcement squarely on
the president of the United States.

In the long term, the Bolton decision will likely be overturned by the
U.S. Supreme Court and Arizona will find itself vindicated.  But, in
the meantime, the decision endangers the re-election chances of three
Democratic Congressmen from Arizona.  Their constituents will not be
satisfied with statements from these Democrats supporting the Arizona
law.  They will become embittered because Obama's Justice Department
has overridden their will.    

Why did Obama bring the suit in the first place if it hurts him?
Because he was seeking to increase the turnout of Latino voters and
trying to win them by the same huge margin (2:1) that they delivered to
him in 2008.  Since he took office, Obama's approval among Hispanics
has dropped to 54%, foreshadowing a massive abandonment of his
Congressional candidates in November.

But what Obama miscalculated was the intense support from among most
voters that the Arizona law has elicited.  As he bid for Latino votes,
he has sacrificed much of his liberal, Democratic base.

     This decision hurts him badly.