SWIFTER WARMING OF GLOBE FORESEEN
By PHILIP SHABECOFF, Special to the New York Times
Published: June 11, 1986
WASHINGTON, June 10—
The rise in carbon dioxide and other gases in the
earth's atmosphere will have an earlier and more pronounced impact on
global temperature and climate than previously expected, according to
evidence presented to a Senate subcommittee today.
Scientists and senators at a hearing by the
Environmental Pollution Subcommittee agreed that the dangers of manmade
changes in the atmosphere had moved from hypothesis to imminent reality
and must be addressed quickly.
They said the rise in temperatures was expected to
cause profound climatic changes and raise sea levels substantially.
Witnesses at the hearing also testified that the
ozone layer of the upper atmosphere, which protects the earth from the
sun's ultraviolet light, is being rapidly depleted by manmade gases, and
the increased ultraviolet radiation would result in a rise in skin
cancer cases and other ecological damage.
Dr. James E. Hansen of the Goddard Space Flight
Center's Institute for Space Studies said research by his institute
showed that because of the ''greenhouse effect'' that results when gases
prevent heat from escaping the earth's atmosphere, global temperatures
would rise early in the next century to ''well above any level
experienced in the past 100,000 years.'' Steeper Rise in Next Century
Average global temperatures would rise by one-half a
degree to one degree Fahrenheit from 1990 to 2000 if current trends are
unchanged, according to Dr. Hansen's findings. Dr. Hansen said the
global temperature would rise by another 2 to 4 degrees in the following
decade.
While the effect of small increases in global
temperature is now unclear, Andrew Maguire, vice president of the World
Resources Institute, a Washington research and policy group, said that
the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is foreseen would cause a
rise of 3 to 8 degrees in temperature by the 2030's. He said this would
devastate agriculture in the United States and elsewhere, and would
cause a rise in sea level of some 4.5 feet as polar ice melted.
Earlier projections of warming trends had held that
they would not occur before the middle of the next century. One of the
reasons that scientists now expect faster and higher temperature rises
is the emerging consensus that gases other than the carbon dioxide
emitted by the burning of such fossil fuels as coal are playing a major
role in the greenhouse effect.
The greenhouse effect is the name given to the
phenomenon created when carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and
other gases accumulate in the atmosphere and prevent radiant heat from
the sun that has reached the earth's surface from escaping back into
space.
Dr. Hansen and other scientists testifying today
said there was now broad consensus among scientists that the greenhouse
effect was speeding up the increase in global temperatures. Less Urgency
in 1983
In 1983 a report by the National Academy of Sciences
said the greenhouse effect was a ''cause for concern,'' but concluded
that there was time to prepare for its impact.
The academy report projected a doubling of
greenhouse gases by the third quarter of the next century. Dr. Hansen's
research, however, found that if there is no change in the current rate
of growth, the greenhouse gases would double by the late 2020's.
A report by the Environmental Protection Agency
three years ago said the warming trend could start by the 1990's and
could reach as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2040, but this was
attacked by President Reagan's science adviser at the time, George A.
Keyworth, as ''unnecessarily alarmist.''
Today, the scientists and the senators on the
subcommittee asserted that there must be national and international
action now to mitigate and deal with the imminent effects of the
atmospheric changes taking place as a result of human activity. Chafee
Asks Early Action
Senator John H. Chafee, the Rhode Island Republican
who is chairman of the subcommittee, quoted a recent assessment by the
Department of Energy, which said, ''Human effects on atmospheric
composition and the size and operations of the terrestrial ecosystems
may yet overwhelm the life-support system crafted in nature over
billions of years.''
Senator Chafee said it would be too risky to wait
until all the answers about atmospheric changes were known before taking
action.
He called for the Reagan Administration to take up
the issue at the next international economic summit meeting and also at
the President's next meeting with the Soviet leader, Mikhail S.
Gorbachev.
While the scientists testified today that it would
be some time before there was enough data to pinpoint regional climatic
changes, it was considered likely that some of today's most productive
agricultural areas would become too arid for farming.
They also testified that a ''hole,'' in which the
ozone has been reduced by some 40 percent, has formed in the ozone layer
over Antarctica.
While many aerosol uses of chlorofluorocarbons have
been banned in this country, their use in other applications is
increasing, and they continue to be used in aerosols in other countries.
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