97 percent of scientists believe in global warming? Try 36 percent

97 percent of scientists believe in global warming? Try 36 percent

June 25, 2015 3:16 PM MST

The statement “97 percent of scientists believe global warming is real” has become a media cliché used to beat down climate change skeptics with the illusion of consensus. However, as Forbes pointed out, the method that was used to arrive at that figure was so dubious that it might as well have been grabbed out of thin air. Forbes also looked at a peered reviewed study of geoscientists and found that the actual figure of scientists who believe that human-caused global warming is real and that it is of serious concern is 36 percent. That is hardly something to base upending the entire economic order of the planet on.

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The survey was actually published in the journal “Organizational Studies” a couple of years ago, but somehow escaped notice by most of the mainstream media. Its conclusions are quite illuminating.
“The survey finds that 24 percent of the scientist respondents fit the ‘Nature Is Overwhelming’ model. ‘In their diagnostic framing, they believe that changes to the climate are natural, normal cycles of the Earth.’ Moreover, ‘they strongly disagree that climate change poses any significant public risk and see no impact on their personal lives.’
“Another group of scientists fit the ‘Fatalists’ model. These scientists, comprising 17 percent of the respondents, ‘diagnose climate change as both human- and naturally caused. ‘Fatalists’ consider climate change to be a smaller public risk with little impact on their personal life. They are skeptical that the scientific debate is settled regarding the IPCC modeling.’ These scientists are likely to ask, ‘How can anyone take action if research is biased?’
”The next largest group of scientists, comprising 10 percent of respondents, fit the ‘Economic Responsibility’ model. These scientists ‘diagnose climate change as being natural or human caused. More than any other group, they underscore that the ‘real’ cause of climate change is unknown as nature is forever changing and uncontrollable. Similar to the ‘nature is overwhelming’ adherents, they disagree that climate change poses any significant public risk and see no impact on their personal life. They are also less likely to believe that the scientific debate is settled and that the IPCC modeling is accurate. In their prognostic framing, they point to the harm the Kyoto Protocol and all regulation will do to the economy.’”
‘The final group of scientists, comprising 5 percent of the respondents, fit the ‘Regulation Activists’ model. These scientists ‘diagnose climate change as being both human- and naturally caused, posing a moderate public risk, with only slight impact on their personal life.’ Moreover, ‘They are also skeptical with regard to the scientific debate being settled and are the most indecisive whether IPCC modeling is accurate.’”
Why, then, does the media persist in advancing the “97 percent” rubric when it is at variance with the facts? That much of the media is politically biased has become so accepted that it has become a cliché. But something else is likely in play here, that being the fear of being labeled a heretic.
Acolytes of the global warming hypothesis, having been stymied to some extent in their efforts to reorganize society based on the threat that most scientists do not think exists or is significant enough to worry about, have resorted to crude, political tactics to silence their opponents. They throw around terms like “denier” to label skeptics of global warming as somehow outside the keen of not only public thought, but of humanity. “Denial” of global warming is painted as being the same as denial of the Nazi Holocaust or of the moon landing. The drumbeat is loud and effective. Even Pope Francis, head of a church not known for being overly friendly to science, has placed a religious cast on the pro global warming position. Add to that that government grant money tends to flow to climate scientists who accept global warming and the temptation to either conform or keep one's head down and keep silent can be overwhelming,