NBC News poll: Americans split on who will win in 2020
A
majority of Americans do not believe that nominating a female or
nonwhite candidate will help or hurt the Democratic Party in the general
election, according to the poll.
By Andrew Arenge, Charles Riemann and John Lapinski
As
President Donald Trump travels to Michigan on Thursday to campaign for
re-election, a new national poll shows that Americans are evenly split
on who they think will win the presidency in 2020.
According to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey online poll, conducted before the release of a four-page summary of special counsel Robert Mueller's report,
43 percent of Americans think Trump will be re-elected and 43 percent
believe the Democratic nominee will win. Nearly one in 10 Americans — 9
percent — believe a third-party candidate will win the presidency in
2020.
While
the percentage of Americans who think a third-party candidate will win
might seem high, historically the prospects of third-party candidates
poll higher early in presidential cycles and among individuals who
ultimately end up not voting.
Even
though the next general election is still over a year and a half away, a
sizable percentage of Americans say they already know who they plan to
support, demonstrating the strength of partisanship in determining the
preferences of voters for the presidency.
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When
asked who they would vote for, if the general election were held today,
more than a third of respondents (34 percent) said Trump. Nearly three
in 10 respondents (29 percent) said they would vote for the Democratic
candidate, regardless of who the party nominates. Another 17 percent of
Americans said that it depends on who the Democrats select as their
nominee and nearly one in seven Americans (15 percent) said they don't
know.
Trump
notches most of his early support from groups that have largely
supported his presidency. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning
respondents, three-quarters (76 percent) said they would vote for the
president.
Who should the Democrats nominate?
With
15 candidates having jumped into the race so far, the Democratic
presidential primary features the most diverse field that has ever run
for a presidential nomination. However, a majority of Americans do not
believe that nominating a candidate who is not a white male will either
help or hurt the Democratic Party in the general election.
According
to the poll, most Americans believe that it will not matter to the
candidate's chances if the Democratic nominee is a woman (65 percent) or
is nonwhite (69 percent).
This feeling is shared uniformly across partisans and independents.
Only
about a quarter of Democrats (22 percent) believe that nominating a
woman for president will help their party’s chances of winning. A
similar percentage of Democrats (21 percent) believe that nominating a
nonwhite candidate will help them take back the White House in 2020.
This NBC News|SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted March 18-25,
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