IT WAS REPORTED THAT ONLY .0002% OF POPULATION IS INFECTED WITH COVID

Dr Whiteford- I am so encouraged today when I heard "less than 1% of Mesa County Infected" on the news!! (see attached photo) What a great way to start Easter! We are on top of this!! (4/10/2020)

This news that was reported this am on our local network is very concerning. The data is calculated in a way that I am worried will undermine our current true success in our valley!

IT WAS REPORTED THAT ONLY .0002% OF POPULATION IS INFECTED WITH COVID (150,000 POPULATION/ 32 POSITIVE- 603 TESTED)

Math can be used in many ways.

• I am also reminded of this when I think about the projections medical providers locally, nationally and internationally have tried to use to get ready for the sick, the severely ill and dying. The intent of this is to prevent and prepare.
• Real time math is unfortunately what we don’t have and using numbers to project potential or possible need and active illness needs to be done with greatest of thought on intent.

The above number is concerningly dismissive of the real risk we face in our county.

• While I feel it’s intent is to project hope and share joy that our community has a low rate-
• I worry that it will give our community, as we head into a holiday weekend, a false sense of the security and miss the only true fact we need just one finger to do the math with-We've have/had > 1 case of COVID in our valley and we know COVID does not stay at 1.
• It does not share that only a very small percentage of people with symptoms are being tested because of the limited supply of testing materials and overwhelmed labs.
• It can not take into account the amount of tests that are negative, but the test was wrong and there was actually COVIDThis is called a false negative rate at it has the current potential to be as high as 30% (so even with a negative test you still have 30% chance of having the virus).
• This calculation does not share that we have had NEW cases counted in the 32 in our community now where there was no known contact—

We now have cases in our community where the WAS NO KNOWN CONTACT

• Those few tested positive people who got a chance to have a test, and have COVID - don’t know were they got it…..
• This means there is common transmission that is happening in our community and risk for more
• COVID is like toxic/poisonous glitter

When faced with an ever real and growing pandemic and watching world wide, national and our states tragedies as the only model to base prevention, and a world economy that Lois B pointed out was peril-- the dots we have been given are the ones we try to use to connect and predict so as to not add to the growing reality.

• Acting in the role to not allow further loss while using the real models we have is where we have unfortunately been.
• A pandemic doesn't allow for norms, always new norms are being evaluated. (well said Lois B)

Hope for the best- prepare for the worst...

Being wrong about the number of potential loss of life given the only models we have, is my preferred wrong to be.

It is and has become the burden of our medical heroes who must brave and attempt to hold the line.

• We trust them to be ready
• Then we have to trust that we need to work just as hard

Please know that I continue to love being wrong in how my local hospitals are staying busy with regular patients and with enough access to providers PPE and Ventilators to care for the pt’s that have COVID or concern for such

Please understand my sheer rejuvenation in the collective mindset of our community as they:

• Practice physical distancing, wearing/sharing/making home made masks, washing hands and not touching faces to help work towards active measures of controlling our numbers
• Doing the above and all the while rediscovering the sense of family, friends and community through sharing, being kind and wanting to be ahead of the COVID CRISIS.

You are right- we have Easter this weekend!

As we move into this holiday weekend that many pause to celebrate the sacrifice and redemption of our Lord, let us do so with the great joy and the upmost insight on how we can celebrate not only this Easter- but future ones as well.

• Sometimes life does not seem to make sense, but God does have a plan.
• “We know that all things work together for a good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to His purpose” Romans 8.28

Moving towards understanding, awareness and mindfulness is always in our best interest. Working towards solutions together despite differences in view points is how true synergism and real change can occur.