A Striking Disconnect on the Virus: Economic Pain With Little Illness
In
corners of the U.S. facing financial ruin, but where the coronavirus
hasn’t arrived in full, an analysis of economic and infection data helps
explain why some see reopening as long overdue.
A food bank in Corpus Christi, Texas, one of
the areas where unemployment has shot up, even as the number of virus
cases has remained relatively low.Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times
In Corpus Christi, Texas, many people strain to name anyone infected
with the coronavirus. In east central Wisconsin, members of the Y.M.C.A.
express frustration with a distant health crisis that shut down the
group’s community services. In western Colorado, the summer recreational
season was canceled before it even started — again with little sign of
the virus.
The coronavirus has killed more than 100,000 Americans and brought much of the economy to a grinding halt. Though all 50 states have begun to reopen
against a bitter partisan backdrop, in many parts of the country the
dual health and economic calamities are not playing out in parallel.
A New York Times analysis of coronavirus infections,
official layoff notices and federal unemployment data highlights the
sharp disconnect between extreme economic pain and limited health impact
from the pandemic in many parts of the country. It is a split that
presents local officials and businesses with difficult choices even
after Friday’s encouraging jobs report suggested more of the country was returning to work.
Some business owners and workers in these communities have embraced
reopening as urgently overdue because of their firsthand experiences.
Many are angry or confused. Others plead for caution. But most agree the
virus has not posed the local public health threat that so many were
expecting — even while acknowledging that things could get worse and the numbers would likely already be higher with more testing.
The Times focused the analysis on 726 counties in 45 states that fall
within the lower half of infection rates nationwide. Those counties have
had fewer than 140 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 residents and
unemployment rates over 12 percent in April, the latest month for which
official county data is available. (By contrast, New York City has had 2,483 cases per 100,000 residents.)
Four of the counties where residents are wrestling with the disconnect
are in Colorado, Florida, Texas and Wisconsin. Largely out of the
spotlight, they have not had overwhelmed morgues, or piles of body bags
in hospitals, or dozens of deaths linked to a single nursing home. In
these four counties, there has been mostly waiting.
“In the first two weeks when they said this was coming, I was like,
‘Let’s all stay in, hunker down, and if we all do this, that can help
while we figure out what is going on,’” said Stephanie Anderson, a real
estate agent in Satellite Beach, Fla.
But since “places here aren’t producing mass death,” she said, “don’t
tell me I can’t open my business in a responsible manner.”
Nueces County, Texas
‘Scratching Their Heads’
Population
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Unemployment
|
|---|---|---|---|
362,294
|
280
|
3
|
15.8%
|
Texas counties where coronavirus cases are above or below the national average, compared with how much unemployment has increased in those places:
Fewer infections
More infections
+15
percentage points
Higher
unemployment
increase
Presidio
Nueces
Harris
Circles are sized by each
county’s population
Hidalgo
Bexar
+10
Dallas
Walker
+ 5
National
average
Moore
0
King
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentiles of the national average
Note: Data are the number of confirmed
and probable coronavirus cases per capita in relation to the national
average and the change from February to April of county unemployment
rates. April figures, the most recent month for which county-level data
is available, initial estimates. Case counts are through Wednesday and
may be lower than actual infection rates because of incomplete testing.·Sources:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment); Census Bureau (population);
New York Times reporting of data based on reports by states and counties
(coronavirus cases).
In Corpus Christi, the oil and gas and vacation town on the
southeastern coast of Texas, it can be tough to find people who have
experienced the coronavirus’s devastation, or even know someone who has.
But people hit with job losses or business closures? They are
everywhere.
Theresa Thompson has been furloughed from her position as a catering
and events manager at a Holiday Inn. Richard Lomax has seen sales fall
by more than 90 percent at the two restaurants his family owns. Brett
Oetting, chief executive of the tourism office, has been working with
countless businesses struggling to navigate the economic collapse.
None of them knows anyone local who has been sickened by the virus.
In early March, things were as busy as ever in Corpus Christi and
across Nueces County. But then fears of the coming virus hit and nearly
everything came to an abrupt halt. The beaches cleared. The oil rigs
idled. The hotels emptied.
“For a very long time, everyone in the business community was
scratching their heads,” said Mr. Lomax, whose family operates Water
Street Oyster Bar and Executive Surf Club. Together they furloughed
about 150 of their 200 employees.
“You look around, there is beautiful weather and the beaches are empty
and you don’t know anyone who has it,” he said. “That is hard — to keep
that disciplined mind-set.”
It also seemed “arbitrary,” he said, that people were allowed to pile into grocery stores but not other businesses.
“You just want to help and want to not be part of the problem as well,”
he said. “It is an awkward series of emotions. For us and our friends,
it started to get existential.”
Corpus Christi remained something of a ghost town into April, but traffic has picked up since Texas began reopening.
Recent high school graduates on a graduation trip to Corpus Christi.Photographs by Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times
A Corpus Christi oil refinery.
A temperature check outside a beef-processing plant.
Cleaning fish at Billings Bait & Tackle.
Theresa Thompson, a furloughed hotel worker, at Whitecap Beach.
Volunteers at the Coastal Bend Food Bank in Corpus Christi.
Confirmed infections have also inevitably risen as testing has increased, with many of the positive tests connected to a meat-processing plant.
The numbers remain relatively low, but with a contagion that has defied
prediction, the increase has unsettled some and even raised questions
about the wisdom of reopening so quickly.
“It has made a lot of us take a pause and say, ‘What do we do if we are
the next outbreak?’” said Mr. Oetting, head of Visit Corpus Christi.
Brevard County, Fla.
‘Open for Tourists’
Population
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Unemployment
|
|---|---|---|---|
601,942
|
428
|
13
|
12.9%
|
Florida counties where coronavirus cases are above or below the national average, compared with how much unemployment has increased in those places:
+20
percentage points
Fewer infections
More infections
Higher
unemployment
increase
National
average
Circles are sized by each
county’s population
Osceola
+15
Orange
Brevard
Broward
Miami-
Dade
+10
Franklin
+ 5
Liberty
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentiles of the national average
Note: Data are the number of confirmed
and probable coronavirus cases per capita in relation to the national
average and the change from February to April of county unemployment
rates. April figures, the most recent month for which county-level data
is available, initial estimates. Case counts are through Wednesday and
may be lower than actual infection rates because of incomplete testing.·Sources:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment); Census Bureau (population);
New York Times reporting of data based on reports by states and counties
(coronavirus cases).
Brevard County, Fla., touts itself as the only place in the country to
watch a space launch from the beach. When the first manned launch since
the end of the shuttle program blasted off last Saturday, tens of
thousands did just that.
The event helped announce to the world that Florida’s Space Coast was
reopening for business. For many residents, the moment was late in
coming.
“It’s been a nightmare, to be honest,” said Puneet Kapur, who has
managed the Holiday Inn Express & Suites in Palm Bay for 11 years.
The hotel went down to 10 percent occupancy from 95 percent during the
peak of spring break, Mr. Kapur said. During the worst of it, he laid
off about two-thirds of his staff.
He has since rehired some of them and says he is staying positive: “Our county is open for tourists.”
Watching the SpaceX rocket launch at Space View Park in Titusville on May 30.Photographs by Eve Edelheit for The New York Times
Crowds on the A. Max Brewer Bridge after the launch.
Capt. John W. Murray, chief executive of the Canaveral Port Authority, at the new cruise terminal.
Katerina Nencini and her toddler, Nicole, waiting for the launch.
Alex Litras, the owner of Café Margaux.
Back out in the water in Cocoa Beach.
Lynda L. Weatherman, president of the Economic Development Commission
of Florida’s Space Coast, said many were hoping the space launch had
provided “a little shot in the arm” to the economy.
Alex Litras, owner of Café Margaux, a French seafood and steak
restaurant a few blocks from the water, has seen an improvement but is
proceeding cautiously to avoid becoming a “weak link” in staving off the
virus. Under restrictions, he can seat up to 50 percent capacity;
tables with room for four or more diners often have just two.
“We are turning guests away simply because there are not enough tables
in the dining room,” he said. “We are far from anywhere we were before.
If we were able to add more volume, that opportunity is there.”
Ms. Anderson, the real estate agent in Satellite Beach, said the
relatively low number of infections in the area — even as people began
to venture out more — gave her confidence that they were on the right
track.
She has created a Facebook group focused on the pandemic. It is called “REOPEN BREVARD COUNTY!”
Outagamie County, Wis.
‘Need a Sense of Normalcy’
Population
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Unemployment
|
|---|---|---|---|
187,885
|
232
|
8
|
14.1%
|
Wisconsin counties where coronavirus cases are above or below the national average, compared with how much unemployment has increased in those places:
+20
percentage points
Fewer infections
More infections
Menominee
Higher
unemployment
increase
National
average
Circles are sized by each
county’s population
+15
Milwaukee
Outagamie
+10
Waukesha
Dane
+ 5
Taylor
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentiles of the national average
Note: Data are the number of confirmed
and probable coronavirus cases per capita in relation to the national
average and the change from February to April of county unemployment
rates. April figures, the most recent month for which county-level data
is available, initial estimates. Case counts are through Wednesday and
may be lower than actual infection rates because of incomplete testing.·Sources:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment); Census Bureau (population);
New York Times reporting of data based on reports by states and counties
(coronavirus cases).
Bill Breider, who runs five Y.M.C.A. centers in east central Wisconsin,
described having to shutter them for most of March, April and May as
“heartbreaking” and “agonizing.”
About one in five people across the region belongs to the organization,
which provides a “second home” for older residents, day care for the
children of working parents, and everyday programming like swim lessons
and fitness training.
The centers also provide more than 1,500 full- and part-time jobs.
“We have had to make some gut-wrenching decisions around furloughs and
layoffs, coupled with how to keep employees safe,” said Mr. Breider, the
chief executive of the Y.M.C.A. of the Fox Cities, which has four of
its five centers in Outagamie County.
An organization built on service suddenly could not serve — even as the
region experienced relatively few confirmed cases of the coronavirus.
The centers reopened with restrictions late last month. Before that,
only day care services for children of essential workers had been
running.
The virus-versus-economy dynamic created a “tug back and forth as to
what is the right thing to do,” Mr. Breider said. “It is a difficult
time because I think there is a feeling like we need to open back up, we
need a sense of normalcy.”
A member working out at the Y.M.C.A. in Appleton.Photographs by Lauren Justice for The New York Times
The Appleton center and four others in the area reopened with restrictions late last month.
The Y.M.C.A.s were closed because they were categorized as fitness centers, though they also provide many other services.
Businesses have been reopening since stay-at-home orders were lifted.
Coronavirus cases in the county have doubled in recent weeks, but the spread remains limited.
When weeks passed and the virus did not hit the way people had expected, “patience began to wear,” a Y.M.C.A. board member said.
The Fox Cities, 19 communities along the Fox River in Outagamie and two
neighboring counties, have faced a persistent risk that the virus would
migrate from Green Bay or Milwaukee, which both have far more cases.
But while the number of cases in Outagamie has doubled in recent weeks,
the spread remains limited.
Andy Rossmeissl, who serves on the Y.M.C.A. board and has been a member
since childhood, said its absence had been much discussed in the
community during the lockdown. Residents, by and large, were quite
understanding in the first weeks, he said, but then grew restless.
“As it became more and more apparent that the hospitals were not being
overrun, and that our support structure in our community was able to
keep up, patience began to wear,” he said.
What was particularly difficult, he said, was that the organization had
not gotten to decide when or whether to close, but had been required to
do so under the governor’s orders, which categorized it as a fitness
center.
“In this community, it is so much more,” Mr. Rossmeissl said.
Mesa County, Colo.
‘Practically Zero Disease’
Population
|
Cases
|
Deaths
|
Unemployment
|
|---|---|---|---|
154,210
|
55
|
0
|
12.6%
|
Colorado counties where coronavirus cases are above or below the national average, compared with how much unemployment has increased in those places:
+20
percentage points
Fewer infections
More infections
Higher
unemployment
increase
National
average
Circles are sized by each
county’s population
Eagle
Grand
+15
Denver
+10
Jefferson
Dolores
Larimer
Mesa
Logan
+ 5
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Percentiles of the national average
Note: Data are the number of confirmed
and probable coronavirus cases per capita in relation to the national
average and the change from February to April of county unemployment
rates. April figures, the most recent month for which county-level data
is available, initial estimates. Case counts are through Wednesday and
may be lower than actual infection rates because of incomplete testing.·Sources:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment); Census Bureau (population);
New York Times reporting of data based on reports by states and counties
(coronavirus cases).
Far from Denver, pushed up against the Utah border, Mesa County is
known for its stunning flat-topped mountains and abundant outdoor
activities. Residents are proud of their record so far on the
coronavirus — just 55 known cases, and nearly all have already recovered
— but some worry about the price the county has paid.
The largest country music festival in Colorado has been canceled. So
has the Junior College Baseball World Series. Despite getting state
permission to open some businesses ahead of the rest of Colorado, many
in the county are struggling — and patience is thinning.
“Obviously we don’t want to let it get away from us, we don’t want to
ruin a good thing, but did it really have to be this level of shutdown?”
said Doug Simons, a third-generation owner of Enstrom Candies, which
has five retail stores that have remained open as essential businesses.
“There was a real reluctance from our leaders to let things open back
up, even though we had practically zero disease in our community,” he
said. “I thought: ‘What the heck is going on? We don’t have any cases
here and we’re being told to shut down like it’s New York City.’”
Weekends that used to draw thousands and cause hotels to sell out have
passed by quietly. Graduation last month from Colorado Mesa University
in Grand Junction, the county’s biggest city, was held online.
“It feels a little bit strange here because the weather is nice and
everyone can still go out and hike and mountain bike and do all of the
naturally socially distanced activities that we love to enjoy,” said
Amanda Michelsen, director of sales at the Courtyard and Residence Inn,
which had furloughed about three-quarters of its 80-person staff.
Wakeboarding at the Imondi Wake Zone in Fruita, Colo.Photographs by Benjamin Rasmussen for The New York Times
Doug and Jamee Simons, owners of Enstrom Candies.
A sparsely populated downtown Grand Junction.
Empty porta-potties next to the field where the Country Jam was to be held.
The chef Josh Niernberg at his restaurant Bin707 Foodbar.
“We’ll be able to stay open for now,” Mr. Niernberg said of Bin 707, but he was cautious about whether it was sustainable.
Mesa County has suffered before. When the Great Recession struck a
decade ago, the region was overly dependent on oil and gas extraction.
Recovery was slow, but local groups worked to diversify the economy, in
part by focusing on tourism. The efforts contributed to “three really
good years of growth,” said Robin Brown, executive director of the Grand
Junction Economic Partnership.
Josh Niernberg’s restaurant, Bin 707 Foodbar, was among the successes.
In February, he was a semifinalist for a James Beard award. But
recently, he has been able to keep paying his employees only by
borrowing through the federal Paycheck Protection Program and by
shifting some of them to a second restaurant he owns.
“We’ll be able to stay open for now, but we don’t have the customer
base we foresee at this time of year and I don’t see it coming any time
soon,” he said.
Angela Padalecki, executive director of the Grand Junction Regional
Airport, equates the sadness and anger among residents with stages of
grief.
“We’re grieving the loss of those good times,” she said.
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