Thursday, September 27, 2012

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

QStarNews Quick Poll

Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%


The QStarNews Quick Poll is the first trial run preceding the upcoming QStarNews poll on the presidential race and current events. This election season has seen so many polls heavily skewed and poorly weighted, that show skewed and inaccurate results. The purpose of this poll is to present the most accurate results possible based on the latest of what is known about the electorate and voter behavior and other statistical information available.

The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.

Republicans are 68 percent conservative, 27 percent moderate and 5 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 14 percent are conservative, 36 percent are moderate and 50 percent are liberal. Independents include 39 percent conservatives, 36 percent moderates and 25 percent liberals.

Our polls about doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 37.6 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 68 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should insure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans.

Results: The QStarNews Quick Poll

We asked eight questions in this survey. The link here shows our questions. The important questions were about preference for Romney or Obama in the presidential race, approval or disapproval of President Obama's performance in office, and the generic ballot question for Congress. The web-based survey included 2075 responses surveyed between September 10-15. The poll has a margin of error of three percent.

If the election were held today, would you vote for the ticket of Democratic candidates, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Bicden, or the ticket of Republican candidates, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Congressman Paul Ryan?

Romney/Ryan 55%
Obama/Biden 44%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

ticket Republicans Democrats Independents
Romney/Ryan
94.6%
8.5%
56.7%
Obama/Biden
5.1%
89.4%
41.8%


Do you approve or disapprove of Obama's performance as president?

Disapproval 55%
Approval 45%

Strongly Disapprove 48.78%
Somewhat Disapprove 6.29%
Somewhat Approve 19.67%
Strongly Approve 25.64%

Difference between Strongly Disapprove and Strongly Approve:
23.14%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

App/Dis Republicans Democrats Independents
Strongly Disapprove
32.47%
2.00%
14.39%
Somewhat Disapprove
2.66%
1.62%
2.03%
Somewhat Approve
1.43%
11.22%
6.75%
Strongly Approve
1.98%
18.22%
5.54%


Do you plan for vote for Democrats for Republicans for Congress?

Republicans 54%
Democrats 43%
Other 3%

Among Republicans, Democrats and Independents

Congress Republicans Democrats Independents
Republicans
95%
9%
59%
Democrats
5%
91%
41%


Crosstabls for Presidential vote, Presiential Approval and Congress with income and gender coming soon. 

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