Grace Hood/CPR NewsGabrielle
Petron studies greenhouse gases like methane in the earth’s atmosphere
at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in
Boulder. This October she identified raw data problems in Colorado’s air
monitoring system for methane. It wasn’t the first time she’s
identified issues with the system.
Scientist
Gabrielle Petron looks out into the world and sees numbers. In her work
for the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
Petron plots data on her computer like most people complete a shopping
list on the back of an envelope.
This fall, her love of data
motivated her to go to the Colorado Department of Health and
Environment’s website. At night, with her daughter doing homework in the
background, she graphed Colorado’s methane levels in 2017 and 2018.
Something didn’t seem right; dozens of data points recorded methane
levels lower than those measured at the South Pole, home of the planet’s
purest air. So she plotted them again. She double-checked them and went
over her work.
Finally, she had to conclude: Much of the data
recorded at the state’s two methane collection sites in Denver and
Platteville between mid-2017 and mid-2018 seemed wrong.
“I was kind of shocked,” she remembers.
Petron was right.
State
regulators at the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
acknowledged to Colorado Public Radio that several of the publicly
available data files on the presence of methane in Colorado’s air were
inaccurate. After questions from CPR, the state uploaded data files with
“reprocessed” methane numbers to address issues that originated from a
third-party lab. They say the incorrect data don’t affect their ability
to track methane emissions.
Researcher Petron still has questions about the corrected state methane numbers.
Accurate
numbers on methane levels matter because the state of Colorado has
adopted aggressive climate goals designed to reduce the amount of
heat-trapping gases like methane. Lawmakers like Democratic State Sen. Steve Fenberg say the state needs an accurate report of where it’s starting from in order to know if it’s making progress.
“The
state government doesn’t have the data that everybody has confidence in
to make sure we know how to set ambitious goals and how to meet them,”
Fenberg said.
Colorado Spikes The Ball On Methane Reduction
Methane is a scentless, invisible gas that can have 86 times more global warming potential
compared to carbon dioxide over two decades. The greenhouse gas
dissolves into carbon dioxide in about 12 years. Methane’s potency has
made it a target of policymakers seeking a quick way to curb the effects
of climate change.
In 2014, Colorado became the first in the
country to crack down on methane, which can escape from oil and gas
wells, lines, equipment and tanks, as well as from landfills, cattle
operations and natural seeps. The state required oil companies like
Noble and Anadarko to regularly inspect and repair leaks at their
biggest facilities. Then-Gov. John Hickenlooper stood on stage with oil
executives and groups like the Environmental Defense Fund to celebrate
the news.
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In 2016, the Obama administration even followed Colorado’s lead and announced a federal methane rule, now threatened with rollback under President Donald Trump.
In 2019, Colorado’s Democratic lawmakers went even further when they passed sweeping new regulations for the oil and gas industry. Included in the new law
was a section that sought to further crackdown on methane emissions and
the accompanying volatile organic compounds that can escape from
wells.
“We are the model nationwide along with California and a [few] other states on how to most tightly regulate methane,” said John Putnam,
head of environmental programs at the Colorado Department of Health and
Environment. “All eyes are on us right now for the rulemaking that we
have, and the rulemakings to come, because states know that will set the
standard.”
In the contentious world of environmental policy,
oil trade groups, environmental groups and the state of Colorado have
declared the state’s methane rule a success. They point to
company-reported repairs that have addressed thousands of methane leaks.
But
Petron’s digging, confirmed by CPR, found that the state’s air methane
monitoring system is ill-equipped to verify that success story.
As
a scientist at CIRES, Petron was among the first to measure methane at
hot spots in Weld County, the epicenter of the state’s energy boom. In
2008, she spent weekends taking her daughter, who was an infant at the
time, along in her car to scope out oil and gas sites, where she would
measure spikes in methane and VOCs. Today, her 12-year-old daughter is a
companion in her data obsession. Even their everyday interactions pivot
on percentages: “Are you feeling 50 percent or 80 percent better
compared to yesterday?”
So, she knows exactly what methane
levels ought to look like for Platteville and for Denver. After mapping
the state’s data in 2019, she took her graphs into work at CIRES, which
is affiliated with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in
Boulder. She compared state methane measurements to those her agency
regularly takes at the South Pole.
Here’s what she saw: At the
South Pole, methane levels annually hover around about 1800 parts per
billion. In Platteville, deep in the heart of Colorado’s oil and gas
country, methane samples measured as low as 1090 parts per billion.
“Then
it became clear, it sounded familiar,” recalls Petron. “We had once
again data for methane measurements that were much lower than the
cleanest place on Earth. And that was not realistic.” Jim Hill/CPR NewsThis animation shows the change between the state's corrected methane data and the original bad data. It
wasn’t the first time she had encountered similar errors in Colorado’s
methane data set. Back in 2014, after a journalist asked her questions
about why Colorado state data were lower than South Pole numbers, Petron
raised the issue with the state agency in charge of tracking methane.
She provided air canisters with known methane levels in an effort to
point state officials in the right direction to adjust their methane
values.
“I think there’s been good collaborations in the past.
We’ve tried to be responsive to when she’s brought up issues to us,”
said Gordon Pierce, technical services program manager at the state’s Air Pollution Control Division, which is in charge of data collection.
When Bureaucracy And Data Collide
For the past five years, state officials have touted lower methane levels
thanks to rules that require energy companies to seek out and repair
leaks at well pads. The data questioned by Petron support this
conclusion.
“Yes, average emissions per well site have probably dropped,” said Detlev Helmig,
a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder who regularly sets up
field sites to measure methane and other compounds. “But that does not
mean that total emissions for the region have decreased.”
That conclusion is supported by a recent research paper,
which says methane and ethane emissions associated with Colorado oil
fields have remained constant. The date range researchers examined was
2008 to 2015; state regulations kicked in in 2014.
The state has
proposed even stricter limits on methane and volatile organic compound
emissions, as well as ambitious goals for cutting the state’s carbon
footprint. A formal hearing for the new oil industry rule on methane is
slated for mid-December. Grace Hood/CPR NewsA
worker at Anadarko, now Occidental Petroleum, uses an infrared camera
to catch methane leaks that are invisible to the naked eye. Methane has
86 times more global warming potential compared to carbon dioxide over
two decades. Controlling oil and gas emissions has become an important
climate policy lever for lawmakers in Colorado. CPR
contacted the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
about issues identified by Petron. While a CPR review of correspondence
revealed state officials identified methane data problems in June 2018
and fixed them in August 2018, the agency took until October 2019 to
update the state’s public data files.
“You do the best that you can, you make the changes as you see issues come up,” Pierce said.
While
the state has had issues with methane data in the past, Pierce said
there are other data points that show oil and gas emissions are going
down. When an oil well leaks methane, it also leaks propane and ethane.
Those volatile organic compounds are measured from the same air
canisters by the third-party lab Atmospheric Analysis and Consulting.
The
state’s vendor declined to speak to CPR. But CPR did obtain emails sent
between the state and Atmospheric Analysis and Consulting via a
Colorado Open Records Act request.
The emails show that the
state started asking questions about potentially inaccurate methane
levels soon after AAC took charge of processing state data in early
2017. State officials continued to ask questions about methane data
through 2017 until late summer 2018.
“There are times in methane
where there have been issues,” Pierce acknowledges. “We feel that
currently what we’re getting is reasonable. That’s what we have to go
with.”
Sen. Fenberg, who oversaw the state’s ambitious new
legislative goals for carbon cuts, said he’s aware of the data issues.
He’s had conversations with scientists concerned about the quality of
the state’s methane data and volatile organic compound data.
“I’ve
been hearing from some scientists that they feel like the trends are
going in one direction, and the state government is saying that they’re
going in the opposite direction,” Fenberg said.
The state
process collects air for three hours in canisters at sites in Denver and
Platteville early in the morning. Those flasks are collected every six
days. They’re then sent via FedEx to the third-party lab in California
to process. Each month, the state gets a data file of results. Those
results are posted annually to the state’s air quality data collection repository.
In 2014, when Petron first identified issues in Colorado’s methane data, the state contracted with a different company, Eastern Research Group,
to analyze samples. Pierce said those issues were eventually resolved
and the data corrected. It uploaded new files to the repository. But in
mid-2016 when the state of Colorado switched to Atmospheric Analysis and
Consulting, new problems cropped up with methane data.
“We did not necessarily want to switch labs, but per state rules, we had to go out and re-bid,” said Pierce.
According to a 2016 bid sheet obtained by an open records request, AAC underbid the state’s old lab by about $30,000.
All
told, the state spends about $84,000 annually to send air canisters to
the California company every six days for measurement. Per state
instructions, the lab tests the air for 74 different compounds, many of
them the airborne pollutants that the state says it relies on in lieu of
methane to track lower emissions from the oil and gas field in Weld
County.
Are Lower Methane Counts Really The Goal?
From the state’s perspective, the numbers on methane levels that worried Petron were nearly irrelevant.
“Really
[methane data] feeds into nothing,” Pierce said. He and the agency say
they use other measures for policymaking and enforcement. “We use it for
information purposes but that’s about it.”
Right now, the state
of Colorado has several tools that track progress on methane: the
dataset Petron questioned, a greenhouse gas inventory that estimates
methane emissions and annual leak detection and repair reports submitted
by oil and gas companies. Those energy companies could be required to
estimate their overall methane emissions in 2020 if a proposed rule is
approved by the Air Quality Control Commission in December.
The state’s other sources for tracking methane emissions have their own issues and limitations. Hart Van Denburg/CPR NewsThe
Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, CDPHE, maintains
air quality monitoring equipment on the roof of Platteville's South
Valley Middle School. Colorado’s greenhouse
gas inventory tool — one of three the state uses to estimate methane
emissions could be undercounting emissions.
“We’ve done several
atmospheric studies at the regional scale that show the [state]
inventory either for methane or for VOCs were too low compared to what
the atmosphere was telling us,” Petron said.
She has noted lower oil and gas emissions estimates by Colorado state officials in other research projects she’s published.
Fenberg
said as climate and air quality goals become more important, he wants
to see an additional level of scientific scrutiny.
“We
absolutely need to do better. We know air quality is more of a problem,”
the Democratic legislator said. “We know that the data is sometimes
confusing and is actually telling us something opposite from what we are
experiencing on the ground. We need to look more into that. And I think
that probably means spending more money and resources into monitoring
and data analysis.”
The state’s methane tracking efforts are
limited in part because federal regulations don’t demand much in the way
of cutting methane emissions. In spite of the state’s growing emphasis
on cutting planet-warming emissions, Pierce said the agency’s main focus
is still on federal regulation, which focuses on ground-level ozone,
not methane. Colorado has been out of compliance with federal Environmental Protection Agency standards for ozone for years.
State
officials like Pierce do still care about methane. As Colorado oil
companies ramp up production to record levels, that can mean higher VOCs
and methane. If the state can lower those emissions, that could mean
less ground-level ozone production. So it’s in the state’s interest to
keep a watchful eye on, even as it doesn’t prioritize tracking methane
closely across Colorado.
The state also faces significant
technological hurdles. CDPHE’s Pierce said methane has been a tricky
substance to monitor because third-party labs use a different analytical
technique to measure it compared to what’s used to measure VOCs.
“I doubt whether any other [states] are testing much for methane,” Pierce said.
‘Beautiful’ Methane Data Does Exist
Other
institutions in the state have far more rigorous methane measurements
for several years. That includes the source monitoring done by Petron,
aerial surveys by NOAA and private companies like Scientific Aviation,
and Helmig, the CU professor, who has done real-time monitoring.
“We
have the only place in the state that measures VOCs in real time,”
Helmig said. “It’s a complex measurement. It takes experience to build
instruments and run it.”
Monitors in Boulder test VOCs and
methane every two hours. The information is stored along with wind data
and uploaded to the county’s website.
In
2019, after more than two years of data collection, Helmig said the
patterns are clear. When the wind blows from the northeast carrying Weld
County air onto Boulder Reservoir, both methane and VOCs increase.
“We
clearly see differences in air composition and pollution levels
depending on wind patterns,” he said. “It’s the most beautiful data set
I’ve generated in my 30 years of doing atmospheric observations because
it’s so clear and obvious.”
In terms of quality control, Helmig
tests his equipment weekly using calibration standards set by NOAA and
the World Meteorological Organization.
“We love audits,” Helmig said. “Anyone who wants to audit us, please come here. The more audits the better.” Hart Van Denburg/CPR NewsThe
Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, CDPHE, maintains
air quality monitoring equipment on the roof of Platteville's South
Valley Middle School. The biggest difference
between the Boulder system and the state system is cost. CU Boulder’s
system operates in real-time and they’ll spend $120,000 in 2019 to
operate. The state reports numbers annually and will spend $84,000 to
analyze canister data and upload their spreadsheet once a year. Still,
when Helmig and the University of Colorado bid on the state contract to
track methane in 2016, they were underbid by just $3,990.
Right now the state of Colorado does not use Boulder’s air quality data. Air Commission Control Division Director Garrison Kaufman said the state would like a setup like that of Boulder — but the money just isn’t there.
“If they have ideas on what we should be doing instead, and if someone has dollars for us, we’re willing to take that,” he said.
Colorado’s Untapped Expertise
Petron
and NOAA have engaged with Colorado officials on methane in the past.
Back in 2014, when she first identified methane data issues, her
research group lent air canisters so they could zero in on more accurate
values. That led to presentations to officials in charge of air quality
about her methane oil and gas research. She’s met a wide range of
participants about monitoring including officials from the state, EPA
and counties to discuss research conclusions and techniques.
She
said it all starts with quality control. In her work, methane samples
with errors are identified within hours — not within months. There are
layers upon layers of data checks and balances. It all starts with the
collection of two air canisters in the field. Lab equipment is tested
and calibrated on a daily and weekly basis.
“When we have any
type of doubt that a gas may be too high or low, it starts a chain of
multiple quality controls on top of what we do regularly for the
systems,” Petron said.
State officials don’t appear to follow
the same rigorous procedure. By the time the state identified errors
with methane values, it no longer had access to the actual canister air.
The problems were the result of a data processing error at Atmospheric
Analysis and Consulting “that arose after the performance of some
routine equipment maintenance,” according to Alicia Frazier, a
specialist with the state who is familiar with the issue.
Instead
of re-testing the air, AAC readjusted data values “in accordance with
accepted statistical practices and standards,” Frazier said. In emails
obtained by records request, a representative of AAC said that the
uncertainty values surrounding the corrected data are larger compared to
other methane values. Some data points simply couldn’t be corrected.
But there was no public note or explanation for how or why data points
were adjusted.
The end result is data that’s not entirely
reliable, Petron said. In reviewing the state’s corrected data, Petron
still has questions. Some data points are still lower than South Pole
numbers at 1800 parts per billion. She said the data between mid-2017 to
mid-2018 still appear lower compared to what is in Colorado’s methane
record before and after. There is no scientific explanation for this
kind of dip other than inaccurate data.
“This entire mid-2017 to mid-2018 time period is still much lower than what is happening before and after,” Petron said.
That
suggests there are still problems that need attention. State officials
acknowledge there are still a few data points lower than the South Pole.
But John Putnam, head of environmental programs for the state of
Colorado, said the state has a different focus.
“We’re not
investing the massive amounts that NOAA might have available or some of
the other research institutions to finely calibrate that level because
that’s not our primary task. Our primary task is to reduce those
emissions at the source,” Putnam said. Hart Van Denburg/CPR NewsThe
Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, CDPHE, maintains
air quality monitoring equipment on the roof of Platteville's South
Valley Middle School. That means focusing on
tracking individual methane leaks from oil and gas wells, rather than
putting more resources to tracking the state’s overall emissions. That
will help with enforcement against individual operators.
But it still doesn’t tell the state if those crackdowns are getting the state toward its end goal: lower overall methane levels.
To
do that, Gabrielle Petron said state of Colorado air quality watchers
will have to become more scientific and methodical about how data are
collected, stored and managed. Colorado is preparing to implement a bill
that requires massive greenhouse gas reductions by 2050. Shaky data on
methane could make tracking its success challenging.
Sen. Steve
Fenberg is mulling a bill for the 2020 session that establishes an
independent scientific review panel for the state’s air quality data.
“It’s
a built-in peer review process,” said Fenberg, where scientists review
the integrity of the work. “If we’re saying as a policy priority we want
to clean up our air, we want to make it healthier to live in Colorado,
we need to know where we’re starting from.”
The state has made
improvements. It has a mobile lab to measure air plumes when it
investigates public complaints. Gov. Jared Polis’ budget request for the next fiscal year
asks for $162,000 to fund inspectors and infrared cameras to detect
leaks. State officials are planning a large temporary air monitoring
effort to gather data on which part of the production process releases
the most emissions. As part of this effort, companies will have to start
reporting emissions to the state and could use airplane surveys to
monitor their emissions
Still, at the moment, the state’s data
collection efforts mean it’s impossible to know for sure if Colorado’s
crackdown on methane is having an impact. Since methane traps heat most
effectively over just 12 short years, time is of the essence. There is
no movement to build out a scientific data collection system like that
of Helmig or thoroughly incorporate the state’s vast expertise in
atmospheric science.
It all adds up to a painfully slow pace for
Petron. She can’t help but think of her daughter in the car she drove
around the oil fields more than a decade ago. Back then, she was an
infant. Today she’s in middle school, about to become a teenager.
In the meantime, the state is taking baby steps and “dabbling” when it comes to air quality and climate, Petron said.
“If we want to take ourselves seriously we need to be responsible and accept that there are better ways to do things,” she said.
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