UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes. QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama. Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote. Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following: Colorado: 54-45 Romney -- a suprise for many still expecting Obama to carry Colorado Connecticut: 51-47 Obama -- closer than expected, and probably an indication that Linda McMahon wins the state's U.S. Senate seat Florida: 54-46 Romney Iowa: 54-46 Romney -- many don't expect this Maine: 49-49 Obama -- much closer than expected Michigan: 51-48 Romney -- the surprise of the night, Romney's home state ties are more key than Obama's claims to have "saved" the domestic auto industry Nevada: 52-47 Romney -- this will surprise many Minnesota: 51-47 Romney -- this will surprise many New Hampshire: 53-46 Romney New Jersey: 50-49 Obama -- much much closer than expected, the Romney campaign will re-allocate resources to New Jersey if they believe this number New Mexico: 53-46 Romney -- most don't expect Romney to win New Mexico Ohio: 54-46 Romney -- Late momentum and great ground game win the Buckeye state for Romney Oregon: 52-46 Romney -- major surprise Pennsylvania: 53-47 Romney -- big time upset Washington: 51-49 Obama -- closer than expected Below is the map of the electoral votes and then below that the raw data showing both percentages and actual projected number of votes for the two candidates in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Historical data from the last four elections is included for comparing. Data from last four elections and projection of popular vote by state for 2012 State Clinton 1996 Dole 1996 Gore 2000 Bush 2000 Kerry 2004 Bush 2004 Obama 2008 McCain 2008 State Projected Obama Projected Romney Projected pop Obama Projected pop Romney Alabama 43.00 50.00 42.00 56.00 37.00 63.00 39.00 60.00 Alabama 35.60 65.22 776249 1422106 Alaska 33.00 51.00 28.00 59.00 35.50 61.10 37.70 60.20 Alaska 28.90 65.80 83295 189648 Arizona 46.00 44.00 45.00 51.00 44.40 54.90 45.00 53.80 Arizona 40.45 58.90 883941 1287123 Arkansas 54.00 37.00 46.00 51.00 44.50 54.40 38.80 58.80 Arkansas 41.18 58.27 454321 642868 California 51.00 38.00 53.00 42.00 54.30 44.40 60.90 37.30 California 57.15 42.40 7008802 5199881 Colorado 44.00 46.00 42.00 51.00 47.00 51.70 53.50 44.90 Colorado 44.98 54.37 1056479 1277029 Connecticut 52.00 35.00 56.00 38.00 54.30 43.90 60.50 38.30 Connecticut 51.05 46.77 857386 785503 Delaware 52.00 37.00 55.00 42.00 53.30 45.80 61.90 37.00 Delaware 53.90 45.42 230766 194460 District of Columbia 85.00 9.00 85.00 9.00 89.20 9.30 92.90 6.50 District of Columbia 92.38 6.42 218465 15182 Florida 48.00 42.00 49.00 49.00 47.10 52.10 50.90 48.40 Florida 46.10 53.85 3912739 4570521 Georgia 46.00 47.00 43.00 55.00 41.40 58.00 47.00 52.20 Georgia 39.70 61.02 1622253 2493449 Hawaii 57.00 32.00 56.00 37.00 54.00 45.30 71.80 26.60 Hawaii 55.05 43.20 257352 201955 Idaho 34.00 52.00 28.00 67.00 30.30 68.40 36.10 61.50 Idaho 27.45 70.20 183371 468949 Illinois 54.00 37.00 55.00 43.00 54.80 44.50 61.80 36.90 Illinois 53.75 46.32 2991410 2577900 Indiana 42.00 47.00 41.00 57.00 39.30 59.90 49.90 49.00 Indiana 38.40 61.20 1092013 1740395 Iowa 50.00 40.00 49.00 48.00 49.30 49.90 54.00 44.70 Iowa 45.93 53.62 721347 842121 Kansas 36.00 54.00 37.00 58.00 36.60 62.00 41.40 56.80 Kansas 33.10 65.67 412027 817458 Kentucky 46.00 45.00 41.00 57.00 39.70 59.50 41.10 57.50 Kentucky 37.30 62.72 700965 1178674 Louisiana 52.00 40.00 45.00 53.00 42.20 56.70 39.90 58.60 Louisiana 40.13 60.05 812638 1216020 Maine 52.00 31.00 49.00 44.00 53.60 44.60 57.60 40.50 Maine 49.40 49.20 372260 370753 Maryland 54.00 38.00 56.00 40.00 56.00 43.00 61.90 36.80 Maryland 54.33 45.42 1436751 1201127 Massachusetts 61.00 28.00 60.00 33.00 62.00 36.90 62.00 36.20 Massachusetts 56.60 41.50 1780147 1305231 Michigan 52.00 38.00 51.00 46.00 51.20 47.80 57.40 40.90 Michigan 48.25 51.15 2488585 2638158 Minnesota 51.00 35.00 48.00 46.00 51.50 48.00 54.20 44.00 Minnesota 46.53 51.22 1391786 1532072 Mississippi 44.00 49.00 41.00 58.00 40.10 59.10 42.80 56.40 Mississippi 37.33 63.60 473545 806789 Missouri 47.00 41.00 47.00 50.00 46.10 53.30 49.30 49.40 Missouri 42.70 56.40 1292914 1707737 Montana 41.00 44.00 33.00 58.00 38.60 59.10 47.20 49.70 Montana 35.30 60.67 174777 300388 Nebraska 35.00 54.00 33.00 62.00 32.70 66.00 41.50 57.00 Nebraska 30.90 67.72 249953 547794 Nevada 44.00 43.00 46.00 50.00 48.10 50.70 55.10 42.70 Nevada 46.65 52.57 462332 521003 New Hampshire 49.00 39.00 47.00 48.00 50.40 49.00 54.30 44.80 New Hampshire 45.53 53.17 335376 391653 New Jersey 54.00 36.00 56.00 40.00 53.00 46.20 56.80 42.10 New Jersey 50.43 49.05 1922429 1869822 New Mexico 49.00 42.00 48.00 48.00 49.00 49.80 56.70 42.00 New Mexico 46.03 53.42 390653 453371 New York 59.00 31.00 60.00 35.00 58.40 40.10 62.20 36.70 New York 55.25 43.67 4025920 3182116 North Carolina 44.00 49.00 43.00 56.00 43.60 56.10 49.90 49.50 North Carolina 40.48 60.62 1799232 2694403 North Dakota 40.00 47.00 33.00 61.00 35.50 62.90 44.70 53.30 North Dakota 33.65 64.02 109402 208140 Ohio 47.00 40.00 46.00 50.00 48.70 50.80 51.20 47.20 Ohio 45.58 53.97 2493712 2952735 Oklahoma 40.00 48.00 38.00 60.00 34.40 65.60 34.40 65.60 Oklahoma 32.05 67.77 492013 1040365 Oregon 47.00 39.00 47.00 47.00 51.60 47.40 57.10 40.80 Oregon 46.03 51.52 811137 907881 Pennsylvania 49.00 40.00 51.00 46.00 51.00 48.50 54.70 44.30 Pennsylvania 46.78 52.67 2838495 3195885 Rhode Island 60.00 27.00 61.00 32.00 59.40 38.70 63.10 35.30 Rhode Island 56.23 41.22 258912 189798 South Carolina 44.00 50.00 41.00 57.00 41.00 58.10 44.90 53.80 South Carolina 38.08 62.70 747252 1230375 South Dakota 43.00 46.00 38.00 60.00 38.40 59.90 44.70 53.20 South Dakota 36.38 62.75 142828 246357 Tennessee 48.00 46.00 47.00 51.00 42.60 56.90 41.80 56.90 Tennessee 40.20 60.67 1076876 1625225 Texas 44.00 49.00 38.00 59.00 38.20 61.10 43.80 55.50 Texas 36.35 64.12 3049168 5378615 Utah 33.00 54.00 26.00 67.00 26.40 72.70 34.20 62.90 Utah 25.25 72.12 227283 649175 Vermont 53.00 31.00 51.00 41.00 58.90 38.80 67.80 30.60 Vermont 53.03 43.32 177009 144598 Virginia 45.00 47.00 44.00 52.00 45.60 53.80 52.70 46.40 Virginia 42.18 57.77 1631794 2234916 Washington 50.00 37.00 50.00 45.00 52.80 45.60 57.50 40.50 Washington 50.93 48.76 1414351 1354089 West Virginia 51.00 37.00 46.00 52.00 43.20 56.10 42.60 55.70 West Virginia 41.05 58.17 299871 424933 Wisconsin 49.00 39.00 48.00 48.00 49.70 49.40 56.30 42.40 Wisconsin 46.10 52.67 1417615 1619649 Wyoming 37.00 50.00 28.00 68.00 29.10 69.00 32.70 65.20 Wyoming 27.05 71.02 68488 179817 Total 0.49 0.41 0.48 0.48 48.30 50.70 53.00 46.00 Total 45.92 53.63 60128685 70226212