New paper finds climate sensitivity to CO2 is only 0.43C, about 7 times less than the IPCC claims
The paper further establishes that climate sensitivity to tiny changes in solar activity is comparable to that of CO2 and by no means insignificant as the IPCC prefers to claim.
The following is a Google translation from the German EIKE site with an overview of the main findings of the paper, followed by a link to the full paper [in English].
Assessment of global warming due to CO2 and solar influence
Currently climate sensitivity (discussed for example here ) is claimed by the IPCC mid-value to be 3.0 C (AR4) as the most probable value, but others have determined much lower values of 1.73C or 1C or even 0.43C. Prof. Hermann Harde, renowned physicist and Spektral analytiker has determined from his new paper the climate sensitivity is 0.43 C
Only a few spectral lines from CO2 absorbed Image
Editor's note:
The
"climate sensitivity" said quantity was invented to carry the
presumption in meaningful ways into account that the global mean
temperature of the atmosphere could possibly be driven in a certain way
by increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the air. To
this end, forces defined (postulated) called. "Forcings", whose
influence, by means of certain physically based and mostly plausible
assumptions, to accomplish this increase as migration out of balance. One of the factors is required for the climate sensitivity. It indicates how much K (° C) doubling the heating of the CO2 concentration rises.
Hermann Harde
Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, Holstenhofweg 85, 22043 Hamburg
Our understanding of past and
current changes in our climate is based partly on observations, but also
on studies of feedback processes and modeling for climate.
In this work, an advanced two-layer climate model is presented, which is specifically geared to the influence of rising CO2 to calculate concentration in the atmosphere on global warming and the effects of a changing solar activity on our climate.
The
model describes the atmosphere and the earth surface than two layers,
which act simultaneously as absorber and Planck radiator. In
equilibrium, thereby giving the earth as the atmosphere about the
radiation and the heat exchange between the layers as much power again,
as they absorb from the sun and the neighboring location.
An external fault, which may
have their origin in a change in solar activity or the concentration of
greenhouse gases, changes the balance and thus leads to altered average
temperatures of the earth and the atmosphere.
The
model takes into account the short-wave and long-wave scattering of
radiation in the atmosphere and clouds, in particular
multiple-scattering and reflections between the surface and the clouds
is included. It also
takes into account the usual feedback processes such as changes in water
vapor concentration, the temperature gradient with height (lapse rate),
or albedo. In addition,
but also the temperature-dependent heat fluxes by convection and
evapotranspiration as well as induced by temperature and solar influence
changes in cloud cover degree and whose repercussions are included on
the balance with.
While
climate models radiation losses and their impact on the energy balance
usually describe for the radiative forcing, in this work, changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations are directly attributed to the short-term
and long-wavelength absorption of these gases so that the key parameters
in the representative model shown here. The
absorptions by the major greenhouse gases water vapor, carbon dioxide,
methane and ozone are determined from single-line calculations that rely
on the HITRAN08 database and for the solar radiation the spectral range
from 0.1 to 8 microns , for the infrared range the spectrum of 3-100 microns cover.
Due to the changing
concentrations of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pressure with the
ambient temperature and the height above the ground, the calculations
for up to 228 sub-layers of the earth's surface into 86 km altitude, and additionally for three climate zones, the tropics, middle latitudes and the polar regions is performed. Then the absorbance change with increasing CO2 concentration to detect these bills for 14 different concentrations are 0 - 770 ppm repeated under otherwise identical conditions.
The changing propagation length
of sunlight in a lower layer, which depends on the angle of incidence
of the radiation to the atmosphere and thus on the latitude and
longitude is taken into account by representing the earth as a truncated
icosahedron (bucky ball) that the 32 surface elements with well-defined
angles incident radiation is and then each of these areas is assigned
to a climate zone.
The propagation of long-wave
radiation, especially the radiation emitted by the atmosphere itself
radiation in downward and upward direction which is substantially
dependent on the temperature distribution in the vertical direction is
calculated separately with an extended model for radiative transfer for
each climate zone.
The short and long wavelength spectra show a pronounced saturation behavior with increasing water vapor and CO2concentration and a strong mutual overlap. Both effects lead to a significant weakening of the greenhouse effect with increasing concentration.
The method presented here
relies on the climate model calculated in this work short-term and
long-wavelength absorptions to Decrease the surface temperature and
lower troposphere temperature as a function of CO2 to determine concentration. The temperature rise in a doubled CO2 concentration then provides directly the CO2equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Different
scenarios for cloud-free and cloudy sky regularly be examined in
detail, this. Taking into account all significant feedback effects and
solar influences Corresponding
simulations show the dominant influence of cloud cover change on global
warming, this is triggered by a thermal and / or solar-induced cloud
feedback. In particular,
is clearly due to this strong influence of clouds that the measured
warming in the last century can only be explained satisfactorily if a
significant fraction is associated with an increased solar activity.
The simulations yield a CO2 -initiated warming of 0.2 ° C ( 100 ppm CO2 -Anstieg) and a solar fraction of 0.54 ° C over this period. This corresponds to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 00:56 ° C (doubling of CO2 ) and a solar sensitivity of12:54 ° C ( 0.1% increase in the solar constant). These results are in clear contradiction to the representations of the IPCC , the temperature rise over the last century exclusively anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases ( 95%assigns probability) and a climate sensitivity between 1.5 ° C and 4.4 ° C starts, during any influence is denied by the sun.
Peculiarities and differences with other studies
Spectral calculations
The spectral absorption of
greenhouse gases as well as to the floor and looking to the all emitted
long-wave radiation are the key parameters are for a climate model to
hereby the CO2 to calculate climate sensitivity. Therefore, the essential foundations and results of these calculations are summarized in this paper first. These include in particular:
- New lines-lines-Spectra the absorption (not forcing):
short-wave absorption of 0.1 - 8 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 ,
long-wavelength absorption of 3-100 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 and O3 ,
all essential calculations with high spectral resolution (better than 1 GHz),
with high local resolution for 228 atmospheric layers above 86 km altitude
and for three climate zones.
short-wave absorption of 0.1 - 8 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 ,
long-wavelength absorption of 3-100 microns for water vapor, CO2, CH4 and O3 ,
all essential calculations with high spectral resolution (better than 1 GHz),
with high local resolution for 228 atmospheric layers above 86 km altitude
and for three climate zones.
- Detailed radiative transfer
calculations for the downward and upward infrared radiation, based on a
novel and generalized radiative transfer model.
Climate model
The model calculates the impact of a growing CO2 concentration as well as increased solar activity on global warming:
- It determines the energy
balance and heat transfer by radiation between Earth's surface and
atmosphere under equilibrium conditions.
- It uses the calculated
short-term and long-wavelength absorption and the upward and downward
radiative fluxes in the atmosphere as a key parameter for the climate
model.
- It takes into account clouds influences and multiple scattering of short and long wave radiation by clouds and the atmosphere.
- The radiation and heat fluxes are calibrated to the corresponding satellite data.
- The model reacts to changes Bewölkungs with a bottom temperature change applied to the ISCCP -Observations over the period 1983 - 2010 are adjusted.
- It takes into account the
well-known feedback processes by water vapor, changes in the vertical
temperature distribution of the atmosphere as well as by changes in
reflectance at the surface.
- In addition, a
temperature-dependent heat transfer by convection and evapotranspiration
is incorporated, processes, which are not considered in other climate
models.
- The model also takes into
account a thermally induced cloudiness change as a feedback process that
is driven determined by both the greenhouse gases such as by a change
in radiation intensity of the sun and the instrumental climate as well
as the solar sensitivity.
- Alternatively, a
non-thermally induced, purely solar stimulated cloudiness change is
considered, which acts exclusively on the solar sensitivity and the
climate sensitivity unchanged.
Results
The essential results of this work are to perform:
- The spectra show very strong saturated absorption for water vapor and CO2 and a significant overlap and mutual influence of these gases the amount of CO2 significantly limit the greenhouse effect.
- For the radiative transfer
calculations for the three climate zones, the ratio of the votes of the
atmosphere heat radiation to the ground and all can be determined.
- There are first presented calculations on the influence of clouds on the global temperature at the ISCCP based -Observations.
- The presented simulations
allow a clear distinction between results that are valid for cloud-free
and cloudy sky and the dominant influence of cloudiness on global
temperature as reflect on the climate sensitivity.
- Climate sensitivity over medium cloud cover ( 66% ) is only half as large as under cloud-free conditions.
- feedback :
o water vapor feedback: It
is determined from the Spektralberechnungen for the three climate zones
and provides a significantly lower contribution than in the IPCC Reports with listed. It
consists of a stronger positive part, caused by the long-wave
absorption increases with the temperature, and a smaller damping share
by short-wave radiation.
The linear increase in absorbance with temperature arises from the exponential increase in water vapor concentration according to the Clausius-Clapeyron -law other hand, a logarithmic increase in the absorption of the vapor concentration due to the spectral saturation effects.
The linear increase in absorbance with temperature arises from the exponential increase in water vapor concentration according to the Clausius-Clapeyron -law other hand, a logarithmic increase in the absorption of the vapor concentration due to the spectral saturation effects.
o Vertical temperature change :
Due to the changing radiation fluxes in upward or downward direction in
modified vertical temperature distribution in the atmosphere (lapse
rate) results in a resultant positive feedback contribution in contrast
to those in the literature, where ia is assumed to be slightly negative
feedback.
o surface albedo : From the IPCC accepted.
o Convection: With increasing CO2 concentration, the temperature of the lower troposphere increases less rapidly than the ground temperature. As
a result of heat flow increases due to convection and conduction of
heat from soil to the atmosphere, and further contributes to a negative
feedback on.
o Evapotranspiration :
Also increases with increasing soil temperature of the latent heat flux
and thus contributes to a significant negative feedback contribution.
o Thermally induced cloudiness change : A thermally driven change of cloudiness can be caused by greenhouse gases, in this case CO2 , and also by variations in the solar radiation power. Changes
in cloudiness cause a strong positive feedback, which in this case
affects both the climate like in the solar sensitivity.
o Non-thermal solar induced cloudiness change :
The cloud cover can also be affected by cosmic radiation and / or
increased UV radiation, both of which are caused by changes in solar
activity. This feedback acts only on the solar sensitivity and lets the climate sensitivity unaffected.
- Due to the different effects
of the two cloud effects on global warming, the simulations allow a
distinction between thermal and solar-induced cloud changes as well as
an indication of the weighting of these contributions.
- Calculated climate and solar sensitivities:
o Without any thermal or
solar-induced cloudiness change, but taking into account all other
relevant feedback processes (water vapor, vertical distribution of
temperature, albedo, convection and evapotranspiration), the climate
sensitivity to calculate CS = 00:43 ° C .
This very low value is due to the highly saturated steam - and CO2 absorption, low water vapor feedback and the negative feedback by convection and evapotranspiration.
o CO2 induced thermal Bewölkungs feedback (in accordance with the ISCCP -Observations
for cloudiness change), but not including the solar thermal component
results in a maximum climate sensitivity of CS = 1.73 ° C .
A rise to 100 ppm CO2 over the last century would under these assumptions, then to a global warming of 0.6 ° Ccontribute.
A rise to 100 ppm CO2 over the last century would under these assumptions, then to a global warming of 0.6 ° Ccontribute.
o With thermally induced Bewölkungs feedback, caused by CO2 and increased solar activity of 0.2% over the last century, an unrealistically high global warming would 1:32 ° C ( 0.6 + 0.72 ° C ) result.
o Without thermal but solar induced Bewölkungs feedback (in accordance with the ISCCP -Observations for cloud modification) a climate sensitivity of is CS = 12:43 ° C and a solar sensitivity of SS = 12:32 ° C calculated.
With an increased solar activity of 0.2% over the last century then controls the solar heating of 0.64 ° C and CO2only 0.1 ° C when measured in accordance with the global warming of 0.74 ° C .
o For a lower solar activity of only 0.1% and also a smaller underlying negative convection and Evapotransipirations feedback results in a climate sensitivity of CS = 0.56 ° C, the solar sensitivity to SS = 0.54 ° C .
then controls CO2 0.2 ° C and the Sun 0.54 ° C warming effect.
then controls CO2 0.2 ° C and the Sun 0.54 ° C warming effect.
To all boundary conditions of increased solar activity and CO2 concentration over the last century to meet, and this is in agreement with the observed warming and the change of cloud cover during the period 1983-2010 , is a combination of both cloudiness influencing mechanisms used with a thermal share of 9% and a dominant solar contribution of 91%.
o A value for the equilibrium climate sensitivity of ~ 0.6 ° C makes it more likely represents an upper limit for this. If a solar anomaly of 0.2% based on, this value is reduced to only ~ 0.4 ° C.
Full paper available here:
http: //www.scipublish .com / journals / ACC / recent
Abstract:
We present an advanced two-layer climate model, especially appropriate to calculate the
influence of an increasing CO2-concentration and a varying solar activity on global warming.
The model describes the atmosphere and the ground as two layers acting simultaneously as
absorbers and Planck radiators, and it includes additional heat transfer between these layers due
to convection and evaporation. The model considers all relevant feedback processes caused by
changes of water vapour, lapse-rate, surface albedo or convection and evaporation. In particular,
the influence of clouds with a thermally or solar induced feedback is investigated in some detail.
The short- and long-wave absorptivities of the most important greenhouse gases water vapour,
carbon dioxide, methane and ozone are derived from line-by-line calculations based on the
HITRAN08-databasis and are integrated in the model. Simulations including an increased solar
activity over the last century give a CO2 initiated warming of 0.2 ˚ C and a solar influence of
0.54 ˚ C over this period, corresponding to a CO2 climate sensitivity of 0.6 ˚ C (doubling of CO2)
and a solar sensitivity of 0.5 ˚ C (0.1 % increase of the solar constant).
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