The gender gap that could mean GOP victory in Colorado
DENVER, Colo. — There is a gender gap in the Senate race here in Colorado, and, contrary to popular perception, it is Mark Udall's problem.
The race between the incumbent Democratic senator and his Republican challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner, has at times been a mire of gender politics. For months, Udall attacked Gardner incessantly on the issues of abortion and birth control, in an effort to run up an advantage among women voters so large that it would ensure victory on Nov. 4.
But that's not how things are working out. According to a variety of public and private polling, while Udall enjoys a lead among Colorado women, Gardner has a far bigger advantage among men. The difference is so pronounced that if it continues through election day, Gardner will win.
There are a lot of competing numbers on the gender gap, and none of them are good for Udall. A recent Quinnipiac poll found Udall leading by four points among women — but Gardner leading by 13 points among men. Another recent poll, by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, also found Udall up by four points among women, with Gardner leading by 11 points among men. A CNN poll more than a week ago found Udall leading by nine points among women, but Gardner leading by an astonishing 20 points among men. Any of those scenarios would be disastrous for the Democra
"There is a gender gap that will have a significant impact on the outcome of Colorado's U.S. Senate race, but it's not what you might think," said Ryan Call, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party, in an email exchange.
The facts of the race belie much of the public discussion about the gender gap. For months now, analyses of the gap has focused almost exclusively on Udall's lead among women and the single-minded focus of the Udall campaign on reproductive issues. (A Denver Post editorial called Udall's strategy an "obnoxious one-issue campaign.") Women voters, the thinking went, held the key to victory in Colorado. Now, the numbers strongly suggest that's not the whole story.
There's no doubt Gardner has been working to increase his campaign's appeal to women. "Nobody has suffered more in this country than women under the policies of Barack Obama and Mark Udall," he told me in an interview Saturday. Gardner cited increased healthcare premiums under Obamacare as one issue affecting women. He also pointed to a continued weak economy that makes it difficult to enter or stay in the workforce. "From the last reporting period to this reporting period, the labor participation rate decreased among women because this economy isn't creating the kinds of opportunities that women around the nation need," Gardner said.
One reason the Udall gender gap has not received much attention is that the Gardner campaign has chosen not to focus on it. "We don't drive it, we don't talk about it," said a GOP strategist. "We don't view the electorate that way. Democrats view the electorate in terms of slices. Part of Cory's appeal is that he does not treat the electorate as segments separate from each other. He has treated everyone as Coloradoans."
Although the gender gap looks promising for Gardner now, the election is still more than a week away, and things might change. Or maybe the present numbers are wrong. In any event, there are indications the Udall campaign has realized its problem with men and has moved to address it, at least a little, with ads focusing on national security. "I think you can see that Udall has made a bit of a late play for men," said the strategist. "His advertising got a lot more diverse after the Denver Post editorial." The problem for Udall is that his new approach might be far too late to make a difference.
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